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題 名 | 國內預售屋訂價模式之探討 |
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作 者 | 白金安; 張金鶚; | 書刊名 | 國家科學委員會研究彙刊. 人文及社會科學 |
卷 期 | 5:1 1995.01[民84.01] |
頁 次 | 頁29-44 |
分類號 | 554.89 |
關鍵詞 | 不偏期貨訂價假說; 成屋; 持有成本; 套利; 預售屋; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 臺灣的房屋預售制度是非常特殊且重要的購屋方式,許多購屋者利用預售制度才 得以負擔得起購買房屋,或者進一步利用預售制度進行投機套利行為。而預售屋價格也往往 成為住宅市場景氣變動的領先指標,其重要性不可言喻。但是目前在學術上我們對預售屋價 格的形成或訂定並不清楚,而且有關預售屋與成屋價差的產生與變化更是缺乏研究。由於預 售屋具有遠期交易 (Forwards) 或期貨 (Futures) 的特徵, 我們是否可利用遠期交易或期 貨的理論來解釋預售屋的訂價行為,此乃本文探究的主題。 我文將從套利 (arbitrage) 的 觀點來討論預售屋與成屋的價差問題, 同時透過正常差價理論 (Normal Backwardation Theory)、 不偏期貨訂訂價假說 (Hypothesis of Unbiased Futures Pricing) 與儲存理論 (The Storage Theory),分析購屋者將會考慮持有成本 (carrying charge),而使得一般預 售屋價格高於成屋價格;然而如果進一步考慮購屋者對預售屋交易過程的不確定性風險貼水 (risk premium) 及預售屋與及預期景氣變動 (expectation of housing cycle),預售屋與 成屋的基差 (Basis) 將有所不同 (可能大於、等於或小於零 )。 本文最後將建立預售屋的 訂價模式,並提供我們過去實證研究結果作為一初步的證據。 |
英文摘要 | In Taiwan, the pre-sales housing system is a quite unique and very important method allowing homebuyers to speculate on or buy their houses. The prices of pre-sales houses have become a leading indciator of the housing cycle in the market. There is, however, little knowledge about how and why pre-sales house prices are decided or what is the relationship between the pre-sales and existing house prices. Since one characteristic feature of the pre-sales system is its similarity to forward or futures transactions, it is desired to determine whether the theories of forwar or futures transactions can explain the pre-sales house pricing behavior. This paper will use an arbitrage viewpoint ot discuss the difference (basis) between pre-sales and existing house prices. According to the normal backwardation theory or the hypothesis of unbiased futures pricing, homebuyers will consider the carrying charges of a pre-sales house, and the price of a pre-sales house will be higher than an existing one. However, if homebuyers further consider the risk premium of pre-sales house and the expectations of the housing cycle, the basis will be different. This paper will establish a pre-sales house pricing model for Taiwan and provide past empirical data as preliminary evidence. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。