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題 名 | 灰色模糊序率動態規劃於水庫操作之應用=Grey Fuzzy Stochastic Dynamic Programming for Reservoir Operation |
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作 者 | 張斐章; 惠士奇; | 書刊名 | 農業工程學報 |
卷 期 | 44:1 1998.03[民87.03] |
頁 次 | 頁34-49 |
分類號 | 443.96 |
關鍵詞 | 序率動態規劃; 模糊優選理論; 灰色系統; 水庫操作; Stochastic dynamic programming; Fuzzy optimization theorem; Grey system reservoir operation; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 近年來臺灣地區水資源需求日益增加,而開發新水源又極不易,因此,如何藉由 水庫的操作,有效的運用及調配現有水資源,便成為解決此一問題的重要途徑。水庫操作的 訂定一般有模擬法及優選法兩種。近年由於電腦速度的增進,以優選法規劃水庫的最佳運用 日趨可行,故本研究採用較符合自然情況的序率動態規劃模式來建立水庫操作模型,並藉由 模糊優選理論處理決策問題中多目標部份。對於水庫問題中入流量及放水量部份則採用灰數 處理,建立「灰色模糊序率動態規劃」模式來訂定滿足水庫長期操作的最佳規則。研究對象 以石門水庫為主, 並與現行操作規則 M-5 規線作比較,由總缺水及總超放水量與缺水指數 的評比,得知以“灰色模糊序率動態規劃”建立的操作方式,對水庫長期運轉可有較佳的結 果。 |
英文摘要 | Resulting from the continuous increase in water demand, water resource is becoming an important issue in Taiwan, and the exploitative limitations because of the natural environment and difficulties in finding suitable dam sites make it even more complicated. To solve this problem, managing the available water more efficient may be the most feasible way by now. This study, hence, pursue a step forward to enhance the reservoir operation management. There are basically two approaches, i.e. simulation and optimization, to deduce the operation rules of reservoir. Recently optimization approach can be easily carried out because of the rapid progress in computer; consequently, the Fuzzy Stochastic Dynamic Programming, a sort of optimization method that fits in well with the real situation, is adopted in this study to build a reservoir operation model. It handles the decision-making problem in mult-purposes by fuzzy optimization theorem. To deal with the representative values for inflow and outflow, this study introduces the idea of Grey theorem. The Fuzzy theorem and Grey theorem are implanted with the optimization approach to construct the model of "Grey Fuzzy Stochastic Dynamic Programming". This model is applied to the Shi-Man Reservoir and the M-5 curves, the method employed now in the actual reservoir operation, is chosen as the comparison method. Under the criteria of shortage index and total shortage amount, both results of outflow simulation show that the "Grey Fuzzy Stochastic Dynamic Programming" performs better in long term reservoir operation than the M-5 curves. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。