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題名 | 緊急醫療救護案件發生時間機率研究=Nonhomogeneous Arrival Rates in Emergency Medical Service Systems |
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作者 | 黃國平; 吳青翰; |
期刊 | 中央警察大學災害防救學報 |
出版日期 | 20061100 |
卷期 | 7 民95.11 |
頁次 | 頁245-261 |
分類號 | 419.53 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 事故發生時間機率; 指數分配; 卜瓦松過程; The probability distribution of arrival rate; Exponential distribution; Poisson process; |
中文摘要 | 在消防資源有限的條件下,縮短緊急醫療救護系統之反應時間以增加患者存活率,至為重要。然而在緊急醫療救護資源及區至配置最佳化的過程中,因為現實世界充滿隨機性與不確定性,加上路網龐大複雜以致難以直接經由數學模式求解,因此有賴系統分析後,以系統模擬加以測試求解。本文以系統分析針對後續模擬所以而之要素,加以研究,並藉助臺南市消防局緊急救護案件資料為對象,系統分析救護案件發生之時間機率分配。因為時間的差異導致救護需求的不同,本研究利用變異數分析及變異系數的計算,將發生時間分為周二-周四、周五-周一兩組,每組再細分為六個時段,公降低各組內之變異,藉以分析救護案件發生時間間距。卡方檢定結果顯兩組各六時段分符合指數分配,即救護案件的發生符合非齊次卜瓦松分配。 |
英文摘要 | In order to reduce the response time for improving the surviving rate, the optimization of the resource and facility locations is important. Because of random in emergency medical service systems (EMSS), it is very difficult to solve the problem with analytic models. Simulation can be used to deal with the situation. The article focuses on the essential factor of simulation models, analyzing the EMS data collected from Tainan city fire department, to identify the probability distribution of time-varied arrival rates in EMSS. After ANOVA and computing coefficient of variation, the approach is to break down the week into two parts: Tuesday to Thursday, Friday to Monday, and 24-hour period of every part is divided further into six equal-length time durations in order to reduce the variation within each subgroup.. After Chi-Square test, it shows that the arrival intervals follow the exponential distribution. In another words, the pattern of EMS calls is truly a Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。