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題名 | 以灰色預測模型應用於五專招生之研究=A Prediction Research of College Students Recruitment Using Grey Model |
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作者 | 楊媚靜; 陳立; 陳宗哲; | 書刊名 | 樹人學報 |
卷期 | 2 民93.07 |
頁次 | 頁159-166 |
分類號 | 524.711 |
關鍵詞 | 灰色系統; 灰關聯分析; 灰色建模; 預測; Grey system; Grey relational analysis; Grey model construction; Prediction; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 近年來由於出生率下降,導致學生來源減少,技專院校招生不足問題一年比一年嚴重,未來私立技專校院恐因招生不足而有倒閉之虞,現階段五專招生面臨前所未有的挑戰,因此如何未雨綢繆以及因應之道,為各私立學校極為重要的課題。學校方面雖然持續進行招生相關之問卷調查,以了解學生入學資訊來源,但在呈現方面卻僅限於最基礎的統計圖表顯示,無法進行深入探討,如能採用適當之預測模式進行深入分析,勢必可清楚顯示新生入學之來源,進而提供學校招生之決策模式,以達事半功倍之招生成效。本研究採用本校89~93年五專新生入學人數進行預測,建立GM(1,1)模型,結果顯示護理科,復健科,應外科英文組,應外科日文組之預測模式較佳,若再加入其他參數進行分析及預測,當可建立完整模式,提供相關單位未來招生之重要對策。 |
英文摘要 | Since the birthrate is going down and colleges were comprehensively established, the recruits of college are insufficient and this issue is getting more serious year after year. The private colleges of technology might be closed down in few years due to recruitment insufficiency and the five-year colleges have been facing the unprecedented challenge. Therefore, to take the precautions and necessary action to deal with such a difficult has become the most important issue of every private school. Although the colleges have been continuing to conduct a survey by questionnaire in order to realize the entrance information from students, the way of data presentation is simply surface deep which is confined to basic statistical graphics analysis. If we can utilize a proper prediction model to do more advanced analysis, then the source of recruits can be clearly revealed and the result can be provided to the school as a mode of decision making for student recruitment. This research included the number of freshmen from year 2000 to 2004 as material for prediction model. The GMI(1,1) Model has been built and the prediction model shows better result in departments such as Department of Nursing, Rehabilitation, and both of English Division and Japanese Division of Applied Foreign Language. If the other parameters can be included to make analysis and prediction, then the model can be more complete and effective. We expect this model could become a useful tool for related units to make crucial strategies is student recruitment. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。