查詢結果分析
來源資料
頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 複數選區下的棄保效應:民調與選區資料的觀察比較=The Strategic Voting in Multi-member Districts: A Comparison between Survey and District Data |
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作 者 | 王鼎銘; | 書刊名 | 理論與政策 |
卷 期 | 17:1=65 2003.04[民92.04] |
頁 次 | 頁87-106 |
分類號 | 572.337 |
關鍵詞 | 棄保效應; 策略投票; 選區資料; 民意調查; Strategic voting; District data; Survey data; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 臺灣歷年來的選舉,常發生所謂的政黨配票或選民棄保的選舉型態。本文根據 「杜佛傑法則」(Duverger's Law)及Gary Cox的「M + l法則」理論為基礎,針對這種策略性投票的情況,以 2001年第五屆立委選舉時,民調資料及選區總體資料兩方面來觀察。本文的研究發現,無論是從民調的分析或是選舉的結果所示,選民在複數選區的立委選舉中,並未明顯的將選票集中在實力堅強的候選人身上,也就是棄保的情況並不顯著。但更重要的是,兩種資料在解釋影響棄保的原因上並無共識,特別是在選區大小影響力的解釋上,二者有截然不同的看法。 |
英文摘要 | The influence of strategic voting has become overwhelmingly in recent Taiwan elections. According to Duverger's Law and M+l rule proposed by Gary Cox, this paper focusing on 2001 legislative election, explores this particular electoral phenomenon. More importantly, comparing to previous literature, this empirical study tries to combine and compare the information received from the individual survey data and aggregate district data. The results from both data show the votes did not cluster to the top two candidates in the legislative election. That is, the evidence of strategic voting is not sufficient enough in multimember districts. However, as for the impacts of strategic voting, no consensus between both data is found. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。