查詢結果分析
來源資料
頁籤選單縮合
題名 | 物價緊縮的成因、防制與對策=The Causes, Prevention and Copingstrategies of Deflation |
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作者 | 黃仁德; 鍾建屏; Hwang, Jen-te; Chung, Chien-ping; |
期刊 | 經社法制論叢 |
出版日期 | 20050100 |
卷期 | 35 2005.01[民94.01] |
頁次 | 頁181-220 |
分類號 | 561.16 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 物價緊縮; 貨幣政策; 財政政策; Deflation; Monetary policy; Fiscal policy; |
中文摘要 | 近年來全球性物價緊縮風險升高的現象引起了各界的關注。國際貨幣基金(IMF)2003年4月30日發佈評估世界經濟面臨物價緊縮風險的研究報告指出,部分國家正面臨物價緊縮的高風險。各國物價緊縮的成因可歸納為結構性與循環性因素。結構性因素包括人口結構的變遷,全球化所帶來要素、產品、及勞務價格均等化的作用,產業管制解除和全球化所帶來市場競爭的加劇,網際網路廣泛的運用與大量銷售的出現,高科技產業的發展,及全球化所帶來全球分工體系的形成。循環性因素則包括資產價值下跌所造成總合需求的衰退,政府支出規模縮小所伴隨而來的低物價膨脹,泡沫經濟破滅使金融機構壞帳激增和資產品質惡化而導致信用緊縮,及接連而來的全球性負面衝擊。 一個國家若發生物價緊縮,整體經濟將為此付出高昂的社會成本。因此,基於物價緊縮的成本考量,事前的防制比事後的治理更顯重要。物價緊縮擴散會透過匯率管道、資產價格或投資組合再配置管道、預期管道、及信用管道等四個管道來影響一國的經濟。為擺脫物價緊縮的惡性循環,政府當局在物價緊縮事先的防制與事後對策考量上,貨幣政策、財政政策、匯率政策、及結構性措施皆扮演著重要的角色。 |
英文摘要 | After an absence of almost half a century, the spectre of deflation is once again haunting the corridors of central banks and finance ministries in the industrial world. Both cyclical and structural factors have been cited as possible causes of deflation. Regardless of which kind of factors, it leads to a redistribution of income from debtors to creditors. In addition, credit intermediation can be distorted as collateral loses value. Given the zero interest-rate floor, the effectiveness of conventional monetary policy is curtailed - of particular concern when output is weakening. Persistent deflation risks turning into a deflationary spiral of falling prices, output, profits, and employment. It is better to prevent deflation than to try to cure it, and monetary policy must take the lead. Since the risks of deflation are asymmetric, policy must be attuned to deflationary impulses in a low inflation environment. Further, because these impluses can also impede the monetary transimssion mechanism, aggressive action is required. Stimulatory fiscal policies can play an important complementary role; their beneficial effects could be enhanced if measures are adopted to raise the rate of return to the economy, so as to spur investment and output. Structural reforms, particularly those improving credit intermediation, could also be beneficial. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。