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題 名 | 入會承諾對臺灣男女勞動需求衝擊之動態一般均衡分析=The Impacts of Taiwan's WTO Accession on Female-Male Labor Demand: A Dynamic CGE Analysis |
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作 者 | 林國榮; 張靜貞; 徐世勳; | 書刊名 | 人口學刊 |
卷 期 | 27 2003.12[民92.12] |
頁 次 | 頁1-36 |
分類號 | 542.71 |
關鍵詞 | 世界貿易組織; 勞動需求預測; 可計算一般均衡; World trade organization; WTO; Labor demand forecasting; Computable general equilibrium; CGE; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 由於男、女勞動力先天上即存在有勞動特質的差異,且不同職位間,技術層級亦高低不同,使得男、女勞動力在不同工作職缺中,並無法完全移動,因此在評估WTO 架構下對我國所造成的就業結構調整的衝擊時,實有必要將勞動異質化的特徵,納入模型考量。本文整合多國與單國動態一般均衡分析體系,將勞動力區分為男、女性及專技或非專技人員,進行多部門 (multi-sectoral) 異質勞動需求預測,並同時探討隨著入會自由化承諾的逐年履行,對台灣男、女性勞動需求之衝擊。模擬結果顯示,由於加入WTO 後台灣服務業發展益形加速,而一、二級產業相形萎縮,使得非體力性操作之女性勞動力取得就業競爭上之相對優勢,2002-2006 年女性勞動需求擴張的程度 (累計增5 萬9 千人,平均年增率1.2%),較男性勞動需求擴張程度 (增3 萬4 千人,平均年增率0.5% ) 為多。而隨著低階技術之比較不利益產業的出走,不論男、女性,非專技人員的勞動需求成長幅度均低於專技人員需求增幅。 |
英文摘要 | Taiwan has been admitted into World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2002. Changes in both industrial structure and employment structure are inevitable. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impacts of Taiwan's WTO accession on female-male labor demand. The method adopted in this paper is a two-step approach in the context of the dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis. The major finding from our quantitative assessment is that due to fast expansion in services sectors female labor demand increases dramatically with an annual rate of 1.2% during 2002-2006. In contrast, male labor demand is projected to increase with an annual rate of only 0.5% during the same period. The relocation of low-skilled and less competitive industries to foreign countries will lower the growth rate of labor demand for male, female as well as non-technical workers. For the younger people seeking employment opportunities, job-training programs should be carried out to help them transfer to the services sectors. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。