查詢結果分析
來源資料
頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 策略投票及其影響之檢測:二○○一年縣市長及立委選舉結果的探討=The Measurement and Impact of Strategic Voting: An Evidence from 2001 County Magistrate and Legislative Election |
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作 者 | 王鼎銘; | 書刊名 | 東吳政治學報 |
卷 期 | 16 2003.03[民92.03] |
頁 次 | 頁95-123 |
分類號 | 572.3 |
關鍵詞 | 杜佛傑法則; 單記不可讓渡; 策略投票; 席次喪失率; Duverger's law; Single non-transferable vote; Strategic voting; Seat loss rate; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 台灣地區選舉時所謂配票或棄保的競選口號不斷,雖然以「杜佛傑法則」(Duverger's Law)為基礎來解釋選民這種策略投票的文獻相當的多,然而從實證方法來探索選民策略投票的研究,卻主要侷限於分析個體民調資料。本文從總體資料著手,以Gary Cox所建立的選區SF Ratio指數,來觀察各選區選票集中情形,並進一步了解策略投票在選舉中的作用。本文的研究發現,在單一選區的縣市長選舉中,選民明顯將選票集中在前兩強候選人身上,在競爭激烈以及國親整合成功的選區中,這個情況特又別顯著。反觀這種集中選票的情形,並未明顯的發生在區域立委選舉中。此外,本文也發現選民策略投票的情形,並未對各黨立委實際贏得的席次造成傷害,真正影響各政黨選票與席次高低的,主要還是來自各政黨所提名的參選人數多寡上。 |
英文摘要 | Although numerous studies have discussed the phenomenon of strategic voting based on the Duverger’s Law, empirical evidence on this issue was limited at the micro (individual voter) level in literature. Using data at the macro (district) level, this research demonstrates the existence of strategic voting and identifies its impact on electoral outcomes. Analyzing the SF Ratio (ratio of the second to the first loser’s vote total) measurement proposed by Gary Cox for each voting district, the result demonstrates that the votes clustered to the top two candidates in the district when single majority formula was imposed. Such an incidence is particularly prominent in the highly competitive districts or in the presence of party coalition. On the other hand, the votes did not cluster to the top two candidates in the legislative election in which SNTV is imposed. In addition, it is found that the presence of strategic voting did not impact the number of the seats obtained by each party. Instead, the number of candidates nominated by a party was the key determinant of the votes and seats won by the party. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。