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題 名 | A Preliminary Test of a Human-caused Fire Danger Prediction Model=人為性林火危險模式之建構與初步測試 |
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作 者 | 林朝欽; | 書刊名 | 臺灣林業科學 |
卷 期 | 17:4 2002.12[民91.12] |
頁 次 | 頁525-529 |
分類號 | 436.31 |
關鍵詞 | 生物性火險; 人為性火險; 引燃機率; 用火行為意向; Fire hazard; Fire risk; Ignition probability; Fire use intention; |
語 文 | 英文(English) |
中文摘要 | 本研究依林火危險研究中的生物、自然物理因子結合人類行為建構一整合性林火 危險預測模式。模式中包含生物性火險、人為性火險兩部份作為預測人為性引起之林火發生 機率,使用之變數為引燃機率、用火行為意向。台灣中部及南部的兩個國家公園選定作為模 式之初步測試地點,初步測試結果顯示觀念模式之架構及所包含之變數可被接受,但因研究 時之限制,此觀念模式仍須加以後續之評估測試以作為改良模式之參考。 |
英文摘要 | In this paper, and integrated model that combines bio-physical components related to fire hazards and human behavioral components related to fire risks is proposed. The model is shown to be as an improvement over the theoretical fire danger model. It predicts occurrence/potential based on ignition probability and fire use intentions of forest hikers. Testing of the model was conducted in SheiPa and Yushan National Parks located in central and southern Taiwan. The candidate variables provide acceptable results that support the structure of this conceptual model. Due to limited research time in this study, further tests of the conceptual model are needed to evaluate and improve the performance of the model. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。