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題 名 | 模糊與灰色評估方法之比較--以高速鐵路技術型式之評估為例=Comparison of the Fuzzy Theory and Grey Decision Method: Evaluation Criteria and Methods in Selecting the Technology of the High Speed Rail |
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作 者 | 張有恆; 陳星豪; | 書刊名 | 運輸計劃 |
卷 期 | 27:4 1998.12[民87.12] |
頁 次 | 頁637-668 |
分類號 | 557.21 |
關鍵詞 | 模糊德菲法; 模糊層級分析法; 灰色統計法; 灰色局勢決策法; 灰色聚類法; Fuzzy delphi method; Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method; Gray statistics method; Gray situation decision method; Gray clustering method; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究為瞭解模糊理論與灰色評估方法之應用,特別以高鐵技術之評選為例加以 探討之。此乃由於高鐵系統技術型式的評選需考量多元的因素或準則,具有「多準則評估」 與「不確定性決策環境」的問題特性。本研究為解決篩選評估準則之問題及績效評估之不確 定性,提出兩階段之高鐵系統技術型式評選程序:(1)篩選評估準則:應用模糊德菲法及 灰色統計法來萃取領域專家的知識與經驗,選取具有重要性之評估準則。(2)評估替選方 案:應用模糊層級分析法、灰色局勢決策、及灰色聚類法來處理績效評估之不確定性,進行 方案間的評選,最後並探討比較上述三種評估方法的差異。本研究之主要貢獻乃是提出一套 適當的評估方法與合理的評估程序,協助決策者在複雜且不確定的環境下進行決策,提高決 策品質,俾供決策當局未來進行軌道運輸系統技術型式評選時之參考。 |
英文摘要 | This research was designed to understand the applications of the fuzzy set theory and the grey decision method. In the selection of the technology in the high speed rail(HSR), we need to consider its multi-factors and criteria which belong to the domain of "Multi- criteria Decision Making(MCDM)" and the "decision environment under uncertainty." The purpose of this study is to solve the difficulties of the evaluation criteria from the theory and the uncertainty of the decision circumstances. Hence, the evaluation procedures for the HSR system technology in two stages should be suggested as follows: (1) We should apply Fuzzy Delphi Method and Grey Statistics Method to obtain the knowledge and experience of the scope experts in choosing the important evaluation criteria. (2) We should use Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process Method, Grey Situation Decision Method, and Grey Clustering Method to deal with the uncertainty of the decision circumstance and to evaluate the feasible alternatives. Finally, we should discuss the differences of the three methods mentioned above. The main contribution of this research will give a suitable evaluation method and the reasonable evaluation procedure to the decision-maker to help plan the policy in the complicated uncertain circumstances. And it will improve the policy quality and provide the reference to the policy-maker authority to proceed the selection of the rail transportation system and technology modes. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。