頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 臺灣民意對兩岸政治性談判政策議題的立場與其選擇因素的初探=Taiwan's Public Opinion on Policy Issues of Cross-Strait Political Negotiations: A Preliminary Probe for Affecting Factors |
---|---|
作 者 | 徐斯儉; | 書刊名 | 理論與政策 |
卷 期 | 12:4=48 1998.12[民87.12] |
頁 次 | 頁107-142 |
分類號 | 573.07 |
關鍵詞 | 兩岸關係; 兩岸政治性談判; 民意調查; 美國對臺政策; 公共選擇; 統獨; 民主; 一國兩制; Corss-strait relations; Cross-strait political negotiation; Public opinion survey; US's policy toward Taiwan; Public choice; Unification vs.independence; Democracy; One country two system; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 近一兩年來,美國流傳一種臺灣的民主是兩岸關係、區域穩定、乃至美國與中共 關係的麻煩製造者。這種意見的立論根據之一,是認為臺灣的民眾與政黨之間,在對大陸的 政治關係安排上,無法藉由民主的方式達成一個積極性的多數決選擇。其政策隱含意義就是 美國與中共兩大強權可不必顧慮臺灣的民意,因為臺灣民意是沒有建設性的麻煩製者,只要 兩個強權之間達到妥協即可,因此臺灣的民主有被犧牲的可能。本文根據一次辜汪會晤前的 電訪民調資料,指出臺灣的民眾不是沒有達成對大陸政治性談判議題上的積極性多數決選擇 。只不過,這種選擇的出現,一定不能設立威脅到臺灣民眾的固有權利的前提,如要臺灣民 眾放棄主權的一國兩制、或要臺灣民眾放棄未來選擇獨立的權利等條件;如此一定會形成臺 灣民眾的消極性或否定性多數決。除去這種對臺灣民眾的自我防衛心理的威脅,臺灣民眾完 全有可能產生一具有彈性的政策選擇;譬如本文發現,對於像「如果中共提出不攻打臺灣的 保證,臺灣則保證不宣布獨立」這樣一固政策選項,就有超過五成的民眾選擇傾向願意接受 ,且各主要政黨傾向的民眾都有超過或非常接近五成的人傾向贊成。因此任何基於認為臺灣 的民主是麻煩的製造者的論點,而打算以強權的現實主義政治邏輯來解決臺灣與大陸之政治 關係的政策主張,都是不能成立且毫無根據的。本文還初步分析了民眾對於各政策選擇背後 的心理因素,若除去上述自我防衛心理機制的考量,統獨立場仍有相黨的影響,傾向急獨的 民眾對於需以臺灣地位交換的政策較不具彈性。而在安全與統獨之外,務實心態的經濟利益 取向在民眾的兩岸政治性談判的政策選擇中所扮演的角色,本文也有若干初步的討論。 |
英文摘要 | In recent years, Taiwan has been accused as a "trouble maker" for the US-Mainland China relationship, as well as for regional security. One of the essential arguments implied in this accusation is that Taiwan's democracy is too divisive to reach any positive policy choice with a majority agreement among the public and among the parties. According to this argument, it is then logical for the US and Mainland China to impose any policy agreement they reach upon Taiwan. It is considered therefore to be legitimate not having to take into consideration Taiwan's public opinion, based on strong democracy as it may be, since the later can never figure out a solution for the "trouble" created by itself. This paper refuted this line of argument with empirical data based on a public opinion survey conducted this year before the Ku-Wang meeting. It finds that there are more than fifty percent of the sampled Taiwanese public agreed at least upon one policy alternative:" If CCP guarantees not to use force against Taiwan, then Taiwan would guarantee not to claim Taiwan independence." This paper indicated that for the public to reach a positive majority agreement on any policy regarding cross-strait political relations in Taiwan, there must not be any precondition aiming at precluding the inherent rights of Taiwanese people to decide their own future. The majority of the Taiwanese public would not possibly agree upon policy alternatives such as "One Country Two Systems" proposed by CCP and Kenneth Lieberthal's fifty-year plan, nor would these policy alternatives be conducive to produce a long-lasting solution, since they include such precluding conditions. Except for that factor, people's standings on the pro-unification vs. pro-independence spectrum are also significantly related to their choices. People at the average position on this issue, and people with age about the average of the sample (a little older than forty) are those whose decisions critically affect whether there will be a majority-agreed positive policy choice. As for another factor, the pragmatic mentality based upon calculation of economic benefit has also been shorted discussed in the later part of the paper. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。