頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 失誤樹轉化貝式網路模式之建構及其應用於橋梁風險評估之研究=Research on Bridge Risk Assessment Using Fault Tree Transformation Bayesian Network Model |
---|---|
作 者 | 陳棟燦; 呂守陞; 呂守陞; | 書刊名 | 中國土木水利工程學刊 |
卷 期 | 27:1 2015.03[民104.03] |
頁 次 | 頁11-22 |
分類號 | 441.8 |
關鍵詞 | 墜落風險; 貝氏網路; 安全評估; 橋梁懸臂施工; Fall risks; Bayesian network; Safety assessment; Cantilever bridge construction; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 目前的工地現場安全管理主要依賴檢查表的評估,其評估的結果和品質往往受限於評估者的經驗和能力;更且,安全管理和評估的積極目的在於防止意外事故的發生。為了克服傳統方法的局限性,本文透過失誤樹(Fault Tree, FT)轉變,建立一個貝氏網路(Bayesian Network, BN),以評估橋梁懸臂施工專案的墜落風險潛勢。藉由對墜落風險合理的評估,與透過貝氏網路分析墜落的原因和墜落風險之間的關係,將可提升橋梁懸臂施工專案的安全管理能力。本研究利用五座台灣在建橋梁懸臂工程專案的現場安全評估紀錄,比對貝氏網路分析的結果,兩者墜落風險排序一致。實務上,依據工地現場的安全管理達成度的基本評比,本研究建構之貝式網路式墜落風險評估模式,將可有效地評估墜落風險與可能成因。據此,現場安全管理者可發展合宜的安全管理機制與措施,以減少橋梁工程專案墜落事故的事件發生。 |
英文摘要 | Current site safety management relies mostly on checklist evaluation. The evaluation results and quality are limited by the experience and the abilities of the evaluators, which may not achieve the goal of thorough assessment in a consistent manner. Furthermore, the current safety management and assessment methods fail to address the most critical factors in preventing incidents from occurring. To overcome the limitations of the traditional approach, this paper discusses the development of a fall risk assessment model for bridge construction projects by establishing a Bayesian Network (BN) based on Fault Tree (FT) transformation. The model was found to provide much better site safety management ability by enabling better understanding of the probability of fall risks through the analysis of fall causes and their relationships in a BN. The system has been used to analyze and verify safety practices at five bridge construction projects currently under construction in Taiwan. It was found that BN analysis is consistent with the conventional safety performance assessment. In practice, based upon the BN analysis by inputting prior information about basic safety causes, the probabilities of fall risks were effectively assessed. Proper preventive safety management strategies could then be established to reduce the occurrences of fall accidents at the bridge construction projects. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。