查詢結果分析
來源資料
頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 1997基隆市市長選舉隱性選民的投票行為=The Undecided Voter's Behavior of Keelung Mayoral Election in 1997 |
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作 者 | 張紘炬; 林佳和; | 書刊名 | 民意研究季刊 |
卷 期 | 210 1999.10[民88.10] |
頁 次 | 頁1-19 |
分類號 | 573.36 |
關鍵詞 | 隱性選民; 選舉; Logit模式; 分類性多變量分析; Undecided voter; Election; Logit model; Categorical multivariate method; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究嘗試將人口統計變數用在選民的區隔上,觀察基隆市選民選舉前之早期與接近選舉時的隱性選民的特徵,並比較其變化情形,藉此,才能對隱性選民的特徵或動向做進一步了解,用以擬定適當的選戰策略及訴求。研究中以基隆市為研究範圍,並取戶籍設於基隆市且年滿二十歲以上的居民為研究對象。其中使用電話訪問方式分二次調查,採「等比例配置分層系統抽樣」方法,以行政區、性別及年齡為分層因素,控制樣本戶中受訪者的年齡與性別,以選擇適當的樣本。 研究中發現隱性選民的變化情形如下: 1.在女性之中,20-29 歲的臺灣籍女性選民減少最多,其中國中多於專科以上,專科以上多於高中職。至於30歲以上的女性,則減少的情形不甚明顯,其中, 臺灣籍減少的比例要比大陸籍多一點,但差異不顯著。 2.在男性的部分,基隆市的隱性選民普遍呈現相當的減少現象,其中 50歲以上國中以下學歷的選民減少的比例最多,其次則是20-49歲的男性選民,再來則是50歲以上高中職以上的學歷的選民。 3.若以性別、年齡、省籍、教育程度來分析減少比例情形的話,檢定的結果顯示,不論是男是女,任何年齡層或任何教育程度,都呈現出相當的差異,唯獨在省籍方面大陸籍的選民減少的差異不顯著。 |
英文摘要 | This research try to apply demographic statistical variables to voter's segment and use some statistical method to analysis the voter's behavior, here by, we could observe the undecided voter's characteristics and their change in the period of the investigation we surveyed. And, we could draw up the proper electoral strategy in this way. The research picks up the residents over 20 years old living in Keelung as samples and choose phone-survey as investigating way as well as the method of Proportional Allocation Stratified Systematic Sampling, and use the administrative area, the age and the sex distinct as stratified factor to control the sample's age and sex distinct. The result of the undecided voter's behavior behaves as follows: 1. Among the female, the undecided voters whose native place is Taiwan from 20 years old to 29 years old decrease most. In other aspect, the decrease of the undecided voters over 30 years old is not significant, and the decrease of the undecided voters whose native place is Taiwan is more than the proportion of the undecided voters whose native place is China. 2. Among the male, the decrease phenomenon of the undecided voter is significant. The voters who are junior high school degree over 50 years old decrease the most. And, the age from 20 years old to 49 years old of the voter in Keelung decrease the second. The voters who are over senior high school degree over 50 years old decrease the last. 3. We use the factor of the voter's sex distinct, native place and the education to analysis the decrease of the undecided voter. We find that the decrease in any order of sex distinct, age and education of the undecided voter is significant. And, the voter whose native place is Taiwan is significant and the voter whose native place is China is not significant. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。