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題名 | 以序率觀點分析土石流之發生機率=Analysis of Debris-Flow Occurrence Probability in Stochastic View |
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作者 | 詹錢登; 陳晉琪; Jan, Chyan-deng; Chen, Jinn-chyi; |
期刊 | 力學 |
出版日期 | 19991200 |
卷期 | 15:2 1999.12[民88.12] |
頁次 | 頁103-110 |
分類號 | 434.273 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 土石流; 隨機變數; 發生機率; 一階二級動差法; Debris flow; Random variable; Occurrence probability; First-order second-moment method; |
中文摘要 | 土石流的發生與當地的地文特性及水文特性有密切的關係,本文依據這些地文參 數及水文參數的不確定性,進行土石流發生之機率分析。在地文參數中本文考慮之不確定參 數 (隨機變數 ) 為崩積土層厚度、 土層坡度、未飽和土壤比重、土壤體積濃度、土壤凝聚 力與土壤摩擦係數; 水文參數中以水位為隨機變數。本文將依據這些隨機變數,應用一階二 級動差法 (FOSM) 建立土石流發生機率方程式。由土石流發生機率方程式,推求土石流發生 機率一坡度一水位曲線,並藉以探討參數之變異係數對土石流發生機率之影響,及評估土層 在水位、坡度的變化下,土石流之發生機率。 |
英文摘要 | Debris-flow occurrence is closely dependent on geological and hydrologic characteristics. This paper presents a method to analyze debris-flow occurrence probability in consideration of the uncertainties of geological and hydrologic parameters. The random variables of geological parameters include the thickness of sediment layer, the slope angle of the channel, the specific gravity of unsaturated soil, the concentration of soil, and the cohesion and the friction angle of soil. The water level is treated as a random variable of hydrologic parameter. According to these random variables, the probabilistic equation of debris-flow occurrence were developed in stochastic view by using the first-order second-moment method (FOSM). From the probabilistic equation of debris-flow occurrence, the curves of probability-slope-water level were obtained. One can see the influences of water level and sedimentlayer slope on the probability of occurrence from the curves. The influence of coefficients of variation on occurrence probability are also shown in this paper. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。