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題 名 | 匯率與資本管制--臺灣的實證研究=Exchange Rate and International Capital Mobility Control: The Evidence on Taiwan |
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作 者 | 朱美麗; 簡美瑟; | 書刊名 | 經濟論文 |
卷 期 | 27:2 1999.06[民88.06] |
頁 次 | 頁209-246 |
分類號 | 563.2 |
關鍵詞 | 匯率; 資本管制; Exchange rate; International capital mobility control; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本文從存、流量互動的觀點,建立一資本管制且涵蓋央行外匯干預的資產選擇模型,探討資本管制放寬對匯率與政策變數關係的影響,以及央行外匯干預的可能衝擊;並且利用臺灣的資料,以共整合分析從事實證的研究。本文主要論點有二:(1)理論分析發現本國信用擴張與本國債券發行會導致本國通貨貶值;此外,資本管制程度變小,本國信用擴張對匯率的影響力變大,但債券發行對匯率的影響則不一定,與央行外匯干預幅度的大小有關。(2)實證結果顯示,臺灣在1984年1月至1997年12月這段期間,本國信用擴張與本國債券發行確實導致本國通貨貶值,而此種政策效果,在臺灣放寬資本管制的措施後皆顯著性增強,隱含央行在國際資本管制逐漸解禁的趨勢下,外匯干預幅度已變小。 |
英文摘要 | This paper constructs a portfolio model with the central bank's intervention to study the effects of deregulation of capital control on exchange rates and policy influences. In addition, the role of foreign exchange intervention during the process of capital account liberalization is investigated. There are two main conclusions in this paper. First, both domestic credit expansion and government bond issues theoretically lead to depreciation in the domestic currency. Moreover, the increasing capital mobility strengthens the effect of monetary expansion on the exchange rate, while such a change may increase or decrease the effect of bond issues on exchange rates depending on the magnitude of the central bank's foreign exchange intervention. Second, the empirical evidence shows that during the period from January 1984 to December 1997, the data of Taiwan is quite consistent with the findings of theoretical investigation. In addition, the increasing influence on the exchange rate from bond issues indicates that Taiwan's central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market seems to have declined. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。