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題名 | 人力資本與內生成長--亞洲四小龍和日本的時間序列分析=Human Capital and Growth in Five High-Performing Asian Economies: An Alternative Time Series Test |
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作者 | 李秀雲; 何嫈嫈; Lee, Hsiu-yun; He, Yin-yin; |
期刊 | 經濟論文叢刊 |
出版日期 | 19990900 |
卷期 | 27:3 1999.09[民88.09] |
頁次 | 頁311-335 |
分類號 | 542.71、542.71 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 人力資本; 內生成長; Human capital; Endogenous growth; |
中文摘要 | 本文討論Lucas(1988)之人力資本模型對帢際經濟產出成長率解釋能力。我們在暫時性供給衝擊為AR序列以及體系有唯一動能解的假設下,先推導出經濟成長率為ARMA之時間過程,然後利用精確的最大概似法估計結構參數與檢定假說。在以五個東亞高成長地區為對象的實證分析中,本文之內生性成長模型確實能說明日本、臺灣、新加坡與南韓的經濟成長率變動,但香港的成長則仍需其他因素來解釋。透過結構參數的估計,結果顯示這些地區人力資本的外部性並不大。另一方面,我們發現對四小龍的經濟成長率而言,一個修正的外生性成長模型也有相同的解釋能力。 |
英文摘要 | In this paper, we apply Lucas' (1988) model, in which human capital accumulation is the driving force of economic growth, to the "four tigers" and Japan. Assuming that the model has unique equilibrium and the supply shocks follow an AR process, we derive the ARMA process of the growth rates of output. This model is then estimated through the exact maximum likelihood method. Our empirical results show that there is no significant external effect of human capital in these high-performing Asian economies (HPAEs). The evidence of all HPAEs but Hong Kong supports the theoretical model. For the "four tigers", the finding also indicates that our endogenous growth model and a modified (King et al. 1988) exogenous model are observationally equivalent. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。