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題 名 | 參數即時修正河川洪水預報模式=River Flood Forecasting Model with Real-time Parameter Correction |
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作 者 | 許銘熙; 傅金城; | 書刊名 | 臺灣水利 |
卷 期 | 47:1=185 1999.03[民88.03] |
頁 次 | 頁8-18 |
分類號 | 443.42 |
關鍵詞 | 洪水預報; 即時修正; 動力波; 淡水河; Flood forecating; Real-time correction; Dynamic wave; Tanshui river; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本文主要為發展淡水河洪水預報模式,模式中依據即時觀測水位進行模式參數之 即時修正,以提高洪水位預報之精度。洪水預報模式以河川緩變量流動力波理論為基礎,在 演算過程中使用即時觀測水位作為系統參數曼寧係數 n 值修正之依據, 以即時反應河川中 水流之阻力。模式並以賀伯颱洪 (民國 85 年 ) 及溫妮颱洪 (民國 86 年 ) 等兩場颱洪事 件,配合上游邊界輸入觀測流量或直線外延法兩種逕流歷線,進行洪水預報測試,並以無因 次均方差作為預報精度評估之標準。經由模擬結果顯示,參數即時修正確可提高洪水預報之 精確度。 |
英文摘要 | A real-time flood forecasting model with real-time parameter correction was developed and applied in Tanshui river. The flood forecasting model was based on the dynamic wave of unsteady flow theory in open channels. The parameter of Manning's n was corrected in each step of calculation by using the real-time observed stage so as to response the resistance of river flow. The observed discharges or linear extrapolation of discharges were imposed as upstream boundaries, respectively. Two typhoon events including Herb (1996), Winne (1997) were' simulated in the river for scenarios. The root-mean-square of dimensionless stage was used to evaluate the simulated results. The results show that the real-time parameter correction can promote the flood forecasting accuracy. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。