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題 名 | 模糊專家決策支援系統應用於策略路徑選擇之研究=An Fuzzy Expert Decision Support System for Strategic Path Choice |
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作 者 | 徐村和; | 書刊名 | 輔仁管理評論 |
卷 期 | 6:1 1999.03[民88.03] |
頁 次 | 頁121-140 |
分類號 | 494.542 |
關鍵詞 | 模糊專家系統; 模糊推論; 模糊綜合評判; 產品組合; 策略管理; Fuzzy expert system; Fuzzy reasoning; Fuzzy synthetic decision; Product portfolio; Strategic management; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究目的在使用模糊理論結合模式庫與知識庫,建立一套策略路徑送選擇模糊 專家決策系統,以解決管理者制定策略時,時常面臨的模糊資訊及主觀判斷等問題。本專家 系統可分為 (1) 知識庫:知識庫中的知識是以法則型式表示,且其中又可分為事業區分子系統、策略建 議子系統、α -cuts 等三個子系統,共有 130 條法則; (2) 模式庫:係以模糊理論結合 Proctor & Hassard 的產品組合模式, 建立模糊多屬性決 策模式,用以評估產品組合的績效值;此部分乃是由 C 語言撰寫而成的。 另外,本系 統乃是利用 Zadeh 的模糊推論法以進行知識推論。 最後本研究以燁興鋼鐵公司之線材事業部為例,進行實例研究並進行比較分析,可得知 本系統的運作結果與公司內部中高階主管所獲得的結論大同小異,故本系統可以適時的幫助 決策者制定最適的競爭策略。 |
英文摘要 | In this study we use the fuzzy set theory to combine the model base with the knowledge base to build a Fuzzy Expert Decision Support System for strategic path choice (FEDSS). Then, by FEDSS, the manager can solve the fuzzy information as well as the subjective judgement problems when making the strategies. The FEDSS includes : (1)Knowledge base: It has three sub-knowledge bases-the subsystem of business sates, the subsystem of strategies, and the subsystem of a-cuts. We have 130 rules in the knowledge base. (2)Model base: The model base combines fuzzy Delphi, fuzzy multiple-leveled evaluation method, Procter and Hassard's product portfolio model to develop a fuzzy multi-attribute decision model, which will be used to evaluate the performance of the product portfolio, (3)lnference engine: We use the Zadeh fuzzy reasoning method to infer the strategic planning. In the end, we use the Yieh Loong steel group as a case study to build the FEDSS. The empirical study shows that this system can provide some strategic suggestions and can help the managers make proper competitive strategies. Our strategic suggestions are similar to those of human experts. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。