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題 名 | 預售屋與成屋價格之相互關係--共整合模式之應用=The Relationship between the Prices of the Pre-sales House and the Existing House--An Application of Cointegration Model |
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作 者 | 陳俊合; | 書刊名 | 規劃學報 |
卷 期 | 25 1998.12[民87.12] |
頁 次 | 頁1-24 |
分類號 | 554.89 |
關鍵詞 | 預售屋; 成屋; 特徵價格; 共整合模型; 誤差修正模型; Pre-sales house; Existing house; Hedonic price; Cointegration model; Error correction model; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | Engle and Granger(1987)所發展之共整合理論(Cointegration Theory)內容主要 在探討整合短期動態與長期均衡及檢定自變數和因變數間的關係,其指出兩時間數列間有共 整合關係時,表示兩數列將以相同方向變動,短期內兩者會有所差異,但長期觀之,兩數列 將有相同的變動趨勢。 類似遠期市場或期貨交易之預售方式在臺灣之房屋市場佔重要地位,由於期貨理論上具 有「價格發現」功能,因此類似遠期交易與期貨之預售屋,其價格波動是否提供對成屋價格 有用資訊,且兩者關係為何,值得深入探討。本文之目的即利用特徵價格(Hedonic Price) 法固定異質性房地產之品質,使其能於均等化特徵基礎下比較其價格變動差異,進而藉由共 整合與誤差修正模型(Cointegration & Error Correction Model)探討預售屋與成屋價格關 係,並以臺北都會區房屋市場之實際成交案例為實證,檢視預售屋與成屋價格間之變動趨勢 ,以釐清預售屋與成屋間之相互關係。經由本研究之探討,實證獲得臺北都會區之預售屋價 格與成屋價格間具共整合關係且為雙向因果關係。 |
英文摘要 | The major contents of cointegration theory developed by Engle and Granger (1987) are to investigate and cointegrate the relationship between the sort-term movement and the long-term equilibrium, testing the relationship between the independent variable and dependent variable. The important trend of the housing market in Taiwan is the pre-sales housing system executed like merchandise transaction of futures or forward market. Owing to the transaction of pre-sales house with the futures character and the futures with the function of "price-finding" theoretically, the price movement of the pre-sales house should also offer useful information to the price of the existing house. The purpose of this paper is to fix the heterogeneity of real estate by dint of hedonic price method at first, further to investigate and test the relationship between the prices of the pre-sales house and the existing house in the Taipei Metropolitan by means of the Cointegration & Error Correction Model, and finally to identify the mutual relationship between the prices of the pre-sale and the existing houses. After this study, empirical investigation acquires the result that there is cointegration relationship and mutual causality between the prices of the pre-sales house and the existing house in Taipei Metropolitan. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。