查詢結果分析
來源資料
頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 選舉預測誤差控制的嘗試--以特質調整模型(JIA Model)為例=An Attempt to Reduce the Error of Election Prediction: JIA Model |
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作 者 | 范凌嘉; | 書刊名 | 選舉研究 |
卷 期 | 8:1 2001.05[民90.05] |
頁 次 | 頁25-69 |
分類號 | 573.3 |
關鍵詞 | 選舉預測; 不確定性; 對數迴歸模型; 投票行為; 無反應選民; Election prediction; Uncertainty; Logistic regression; Voting behavior; No response voter; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 台灣選舉預測的主要誤差來源有三大類:調查過程產生的誤差、測量方式與指標的移植、以及無反應的選民。本文嘗試從特質調整模型出發,用基礎模型與延伸模型的兩階段操作方式,以對數迴歸所模擬計算出的投票抉擇機率,來進行1997年台北縣長的選舉預測。資料涵蓋當年度個體資料與歷年來總體資料,一方面呼應了政治學理論中有關不確定性的陳述,一方面也進行選舉預測的誤差控制。最後發現以特質調整模型預測1997年縣市長選舉的誤差,均小於百分之九十五信心水準之下的抽樣誤差。 |
英文摘要 | There are three types of error in Taiwan's election prediction: errors from survey process, transplanting of measure scale, and no response vot-er. This paper try to reduce the error of election prediction via "Joined Id-iosyncrasies Adjusted Model" (JIA Model). JIA Model was operated by two stages. First, I compute a basic model, which reflects some general factors in every county. Secondly, I design extended model to adjust the output of basic model. In JIA Model, I try to use logistic regression to compute the candidate's ballots, and present the final prediction in proba-bility. In this paper, I try to explain in example of 1997 Taipei Mayoral Election. I consider the factors of issue orientation, strategic voting, so-cial context and political map. JIA Model made the error less than sam-pling errors. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。