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題名 | 地下水位灰色模式誤差分析=Error Analysis of Groundwater Level Grey Model |
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作者 | 葉一隆; Yeh, Yi-lung; |
期刊 | 農業工程學報 |
出版日期 | 19980900 |
卷期 | 44:3 1998.09[民87.09] |
頁次 | 頁64-76 |
分類號 | 443.67 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 灰色模式; 地下水位; 灰關聯分析; Grey model; Groundwater level; Grey correlation analysis; |
中文摘要 | 地下水流系統受許多無法完全控制之因素所影響,諸如含水層特性,抽水位置, 抽水時段,補注位置等。因此,地下水流系統可視為一灰色系統。本水主要在應用灰色理論 來建立地下水位觀測井所得之地下水位之灰色模式,並探討灰色模式中生成係數對灰色模式 精度之影響,而且以灰關聯度來分析最佳之生成係數值。並依前述所建立之灰色模式來分析 屏東平原中林園站、昭明站及大潭站之地下水位變化。 由分析結果得知均值生成係數所建立之灰色模式並非最佳之預測模式,而以動態之生成 係數(�`(t)),並配合灰關聯分析,可得最佳之灰色預測模式。此外,建模所用之點數 並非愈多愈好,完全依數列累加生成後滿足指數律函數之點數來決定,否則將降低模式之精 度。 |
英文摘要 | The groundwater flow system is affected by many factors, such as aquifer properties, pumping position, pumping period, recharge site, etc., which are hardly to control up to now. Hence, the groundwater flow system might treat as a grey system for analyzing. In this paper, the grey model was built to forecast groundwater level. In addition, the effects of generating coefficients on model accuracy were also discussed by grey correlation method. According to the procedure provided by the grey model, the data from Linyuan station, Jauming station and Tatan station in Pingtung plan will be applied to generate the annual change of groundwater level. According to the results, the grey model built through generating coefficients is not the optimal one. For modification, the dynamic generating coefficients (�`(t)) and grey correlation method were used to build an optimal grey model for groundwater level prediction. Besides, the accuracy of grey model is not necessary improved from increasing the size of data set and is dependent on how the accumulated generating data approach to exponential function. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。