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題名 | 降雨因素影響下之工期預測=Project Schedule Forecasting Subjected to Impacts of Precipitation |
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作者 | 郭斯傑; 李岳能; Guo, Sy-jye; Li, Yuen-neng; |
期刊 | 中國土木水利工程學刊 |
出版日期 | 19981200 |
卷期 | 10:4 1998.12[民87.12] |
頁次 | 頁743-751 |
分類號 | 441.53 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 降雨量; 工期預測; 分析模式; Precipitation; Schedule forecasting; Analytical model; |
中文摘要 | 臺灣地區的天候因素中,以降雨量影響工程進度最為重要,目前工期預測對於降 雨之影響均以概估之方式處理。本文根據降雨發生的特性,提出降雨量分級之觀念,藉由分 析各級降雨量對各作業之直接與後續之生產力影響,建立一降雨影響分析模式,繼而將臺灣 各縣市地區歷年完整之降雨資料,導入網圖排程系統中,再結合經模糊語意量化處理之工程 人員經驗,發展一降雨影響之排程輔助系統,並以國道新建工程為例,測試驗證此降雨影響 分析模式與排程輔助系統之成效,以提供工程人員更為準確而合理之工期預測與排程參考。 |
英文摘要 | Precipitation is a significant climate factor for project schedule control in Taiwan. This paper presents an analytical model for schedule forecasting subjected to impacts of precipitation. This study developed the concept of "level of precipitation" to analyze the direct and consequential productivity losses based on various amounts of precipitation. This model incorporated historical preciptation records, expert experiences and fuzzy set techniques in schedule forecasting. A Project Schedule Forecasting System was then developed based on the analytical model. Finally, a highway construction project was utilized to demonstrate the performance and effectiveness of the system. This system can provide valuable prediction and more realistic schedule planning for project managers in considering impacts of precipitation. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。