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題 名 | 通勤者每日離開時間及路線決策之研究--應用價值理論=A Prospect Theory Approach for the Study of Urban Commuter Choice Dynamics |
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作 者 | 周榮昌; | 書刊名 | 運輸計劃 |
卷 期 | 27:4 1998.12[民87.12] |
頁 次 | 頁613-636 |
分類號 | 557.81 |
關鍵詞 | 行程延滯; 離開時間及路線; 多項式普羅比模式; 兩階段校估程序; 獲得與損失; Prospect theory; Departure time and route; Schedule delay; Two-stage modeling procedure; Probit model; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 雖然以往的研究已應用價值理論(prospect theory)來探討通勤者之決策行為, 惟僅針對離開時間此單一決策及早到之行程延滯作分析。有鑑於此,本研究將延續以往之結 果,應用價值理論之參考點假設來探討通勤者每日離開時間及路線決策之動態過程,希望進 一步瞭解通勤者如何應用行程延滯資訊於每日之通勤決策中。除此之外,本研究亦一併考慮 通勤者早到及晚到兩種情況。在模式建立及校估方面,本研究以通勤者期望行程延滯模式為 界面,進一步發展通勤者離開時間及路線之多項式普羅比模式,此為兩階段校估程序。校估 結果顯示,不論是離開時間或路線模式,其期望行程延滯除了與過去行程延滯有關外,亦受 到離開時間或路線改變次數的影響。實施行程延滯及其離差變數(獲得與損失)均為模式中 相當顯著之因子,通勤者對損失的反應較獲得的反應為強烈。 |
英文摘要 | Prospect theory, a descriptive model of decision making under risk, is applied to investigate the risk attitude mechanisms of morning commuters' departure time and route decisions in this paper. Schedule delay governing the dynamics of commuter decisions in previous researches is also the central variable in this paper. A two-stage modeling procedure is used; the first stage is to determine how expected schedule delays associated with a specific departure time and route choice are formed; and the second stage is to compare the actual schedule delay with those expected schedule delays. The choice of departure time and route is assumed to depend on whether the actual schedule delay compares favorably with expected schedule delay. The hypothesis of symmetry in commuter response to gains and losses of the expected schedule delay from the actual schedule delay is also examined. A multinomial probit model structure is used for the dynamic choice model which allows the introduction of state dependence and serial correlation (including the early-side and late-side arrivals) in the model specification. The input dataset was obtained from a detailed from a detailed two-week diary survey conducted in Taichung metropolitan in 1995. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。