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題名 | 大陸中南五省稻米供需之經濟分析=An Economic Analysis of Rice Shortage in South-Central China under Government Intervention Policies |
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作者 | 施正屏; Shih, Cheng-ping; |
期刊 | 中國大陸研究 |
出版日期 | 19981000 |
卷期 | 41:10 1998.10[民87.10] |
頁次 | 頁57-77+96 |
分類號 | 431.91 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 大陸糧食政策評估模型; 政策干預; China crops policy simulation model; CCPSIM; Government intervention policies; |
中文摘要 | 中國大陸自一九八五以來,糧食生產停滯不前,近十年糧食綜合生產力一直徘 徊在4.25∼4.5億噸之間,尤其是近年來糧食市場價格長期居高不下,引發物價大幅上漲 ,進而造成嚴重的社會不安現象,已引起中央及世界普遍的重視,一九九五年美國世界觀 察研究所所長萊斯特.布朗提出「誰來養活中國」一文後,更引起世界對中國大陸糧食問 題普遍的重視。由於中國大陸長期處於年際間生產不穩定,地區發展不均衡及糧食品種結 構不合理的狀態,故在糧食供需失衡時,往往造成社會政治面及經濟面極大的變動。此外 中國大陸貯存能力不足,行銷系統機制不健全,及運輸能力太差,對跨區調配能力薄弱, 故當面臨糧食供需失衡時,政府干預政策往往難以迅速反應。又由於受到農產品生物特性 及時間落遲變動等因素的影響,中共所採行的干預政策反而更加惡化了基礎薄弱的農業經 濟。 全國性農業政策的形成,必須對現今農業問題、經濟體系及農業部門之本質有正確的 了解,並對該經濟體系的市場制度有較深的認知。中國大陸糧食政策評估模型(China Crops Policy Simulation Model; CCPSIM)為一農業部門計量模型,為因應我國在積極 參與國際區域經濟交流活動時,將無法避免與中國大陸農業交流,故本文為研擬可行之農 業交流策略,供我國相關部門在進行兩岸農業交流前期政策做參考而設計。此外,由於過 去國內外學者或因缺乏數据或受限於計量之背景,故多僅能針對此問題作文字之敘述而無 法對中共糧食政策效果之良窳提出具體之建議,為彌補此一缺憾,本文為世界第一個以中 共糧食政策為核心所建立之省級計量模型。本模型之建立對了解中國大陸區域性糧食市場 供給與需求之經濟評估、總體經濟政策以及結構變動的政策效果與農業政策的影響,有極 大的幫助。本文藉發展一整合的糧食(初期以稻米為研究範圍)供給需求模型,將提供政 策決策者大量的經濟資訊,其目的就是要發展以計量為基礎的(Econometrics-Based)模 型。本模型融合農業計量模型,可提供較具有彈性且極為有效率的政策分析方式,來檢定 當農業政策變動或其他經濟假設變動時,進行敏感度分析。政策分析之結果,除了提供政 策形成的價值外,亦可提供發展其他相關模型所需,對我國大陸政策(不僅是農業政策) 提供相關之決策資訊,相關之估計結果及政策分析及建議詳見本文。 |
英文摘要 | One of the most closely watched debates by agricultural economists interested in China's food economy and addresses the question: Will China be able to produce most of what it need to feed itself in the 21st century? Agricultural production has developed rapidly and fundamental changes have taken place in the economies of the rural areas in Mainland China. The growth of agriculture has been especially rapid since rural reforms were introduced. The gross agricultural output value rose from 139.7 billion yuan in 1978 to 1975.6 billion in 1995. This 18-year increase was close to the total increase over the previous 30 years. However, the increased output production in the agriculture sector has caused new problems in Mainland China. The major problem is that agriculture was the weakest link in the national economy. Fluctuating harvests in agriculture were of vital importance to checking price hikes and stabilizing the economy as a whole. With the limitation of cultivated land, financial burdens, and a rapid-growing population, China found itself in great trouble in the 1990's. Brown (1995) predicted that China's Production Will fall between 216 and 378mmt short of meeting demand. While china will need to import substantially more grain than in the past, most specialists believe that such a rise in demand may threaten world food security. The object of this study is to establish an Econometrics-based model to predict the shortage of rice production in South-Central China in the next century. A China Crops Policy Simulation Model (CCPSIM) is established and empirical Results Which Incorporate the most recent government policies are reported. Alternative scenarios are examined under different rates of the key variables. Implications for policy and food security are derived from the alternative scenarios. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。