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題 名 | 利用模糊集合論預測電信新服務需求之研究=Demand Forecasting of Telecommunication New Services by Using Fuzzy Set Theory |
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作 者 | 林龍樹; | 書刊名 | 電信研究 |
卷 期 | 28:4 1998.08[民87.08] |
頁 次 | 頁461-472 |
分類號 | 448.84 |
關鍵詞 | 模糊集合論; 抽樣理論; 行動電話服務; 需求預測; Fuzzy set theory; Sampling theory; Mobile phone service; Demand forecasting; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 由於影響電信新服務需求的因素不確定性高且相關資料缺乏,因此利用抽樣理論 進行市場問卷調查來推估電信新服務需求量,便成為重要的分析工具。由於問卷調查是以人 為訪問對象,其間各項資料充滿著相當程度的不確定性(模糊性)利用傳統的分析方法將因 無法充分描述資料特性而產生偏差;因此本文將利用模糊集合論相關的分析方法,充分描述 資料的不確定性,建立適當求解模式,並提出有效的推估程序,來預測電信新服務未來的需 求量。最後,並將此推估程序用來推估臺灣地區未來一年內對行動電話之潛在需求數,由所 獲得的結果驗證本求解程序效果良好。 |
英文摘要 | Since the influential factors of telecommunication new services are uncertain and lack of the concerned data, marketing survey has played an important role in Sampling Theory when investigating demand of the new services. However, the data collected from marketing survey are usually expressed by human linguistic form and hence are fuzzy and uncertain. The traditional estimation derived from Sampling Theory can not fully explain the fuzzy data and hence will obtain bias consequences. Therefore, in this study, to completely capture the uncertainty of the surveying data, we adopt the analytical methods developed from Fuzzy Set Theory and then construct a solution model. Based on the proposed model, an efficient solution procedure is developed to aid researchers to acquire the demand of new services of telecommunication. Finally, the solution procedure is employed to estimate the potential demand of Mobile Phone within one year in Taiwan with a satisfactory result. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。