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題 名 | Simulation of Present-Day Climate Over the Indian Subcontinent by General Circulation Models=印度次大陸現今氣候之全球環流模式模擬 |
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作 者 | Lal,M.; Whetton,P. H.; Pittock,A. B.; Chakraborty,B.; | 書刊名 | Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences |
卷 期 | 9:1 1998.03[民87.03] |
頁 次 | 頁69-96 |
分類號 | 351.89393 |
關鍵詞 | 印度次大陸; 氣候; 全球環流模式; Global climate models; Control experiments; Regional climates; Indian subcontinent; Monsoon; |
語 文 | 英文(English) |
英文摘要 | There continues to be some improvement in the ability of general circulation models to simulate the present-day climate on large scales although further improvements in the model resolution and parameterization of physical processes are still needed for the realistic simulation of regional climates. Quantitative assessment of the magnitude of climate change on a regional scale and its implications are essential for understanding, planning and management of resources at national/regional levels. In developing countries like India, where the economy is largely regulated by variability in summer monsoon rainfall, the consideration of measures for reducing the impacts of global change should begin as soon as possible, particularly with regard to floods and droughts, cyclone disaster preparedness, hydrological planning in semi-arid regions and coastal zone management issues. With this in view, we examine here the skill of a range of global climate models in simulating the regional climatology of the Indian subcontinent. This is a necessary first step in preparing climate change scenarios for the region. The simulation of the current broad scale patterns of mean sea level pressure, temperature and precipitation over the northern hemisphere and over the Indian subcontinent in particular are assessed for a broad range of global climate modelling experiments. The experiments included both slab ocean and coupled ocean experiments. Five experiments are identified as having a fairly realistic simulation and may be considered acceptable for use in regional climate change assessments. All of these are of relatively high resolution and use a Q-flux correction (in the slab ocean experiments) or a flux correction (in the coupled ocean experiments). A further four experiments, with somewhat poorer regional climate simulations, are acceptable but only to a moderate degree of confidence. However, some six experiments have such marked deficiencies in their simulation of present- |
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