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題名 | 氣候變遷對水資源之衝擊--雨量分析=The Impacts of Climatic Change on Water Resources--Rainfall Analysis |
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作者 | 虞國興; 許書平; Yu, Gwo-hsing; Hsu, Shu-ping; |
期刊 | 農業工程學報 |
出版日期 | 19980300 |
卷期 | 44:1 1998.03[民87.03] |
頁次 | 頁9-24 |
分類號 | 354.7722 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 氣候變遷; 雨量; 趨勢; Climatic change; Rainfall; Trend; |
中文摘要 | 本研究分別以簡單線性迴歸、無因次化方法、無母數資料分布檢定( Wald-Wolfowitz Runs Test )、時間序列模式及區域整合趨勢分析等方法, 針對雨量資料 之長期趨勢、分布特性、模式結構,以及梅雨和颱風季節之降雨等多項特性分別加以探討其 變化,藉以了解氣候變遷對臺灣地區降雨之影響。研究中共計分析全省各地資料記錄長度至 少 20 年,且記錄至少達 1990 年之 346 站雨量資料。 研究結果顯示,臺灣全省各區之年不降雨日數及年最長連續不降雨日數均呈現逐年增加之趨 勢;同時,中部及南部地區存在明顯之乾旱季節,且此乾旱期距具逐年增加之趨勢。年降雨 量部份、中、南部地區呈現逐年減少之趨勢,而北部地區則呈逐年增加趨勢。全年降雨量分 布方面,普遍以二月至五月呈增加趨勢,六月至十二月呈減少趨勢之季節變遷現象,其中, 北部及中部地區二月至五月之春季季節降雨量具逐年增加之趨勢;中部及南部地區六、七及 十月份之夏季季節降雨量呈現並具逐年減少之趨勢。並由時間序列模式結構變化分析結果顯 示,各區月雨量確實已明顯發生改變。就梅雨期而言,東部地區降雨量呈現改變並具逐年減 少之趨勢。此外,歷年來侵臺颱風次數呈鋸齒狀上下震動現象,其次數及所挾帶之降雨量對 本省之影響均未有顯著之改變,但就颱風侵襲路徑而言,以自花東地區方向登陸侵臺颱風對 本省降雨量之影響呈增加趨勢,尤其以東部地區最為顯著。 |
英文摘要 | This research deals with the impact of climatic changes on the rainfall of Taiwan area. It is based on the rainfall data of long-standing trend, distribution, structure, and the rainfall characteristics of mei-yu as well as typhoon seasons. Several important methods are used as following: Simple Linear Regression Method, Nonparametric Statistical Method (Wald-Wolfowitz Runs Test). Time Series Model and Area Organized Trend Test. In this study analyzes all over Taiwan area, including the rainfall information in 346 stations that have been recorded for at least 20 years and at least to the year of 1990. The results indicate that both yearly non-rainy days and maximum yearly continuous non-rainy days appear increasing trend in the whole Taiwan area. At the same time, the drought season lasts apparently longer in the middle and the south areas. The amount of the yearly rainfall in inclined to decrease in the middle and the south areas, but to increase in the north area. As to the distribution of yearly rainfall, it commonly appears the increasing trend from February to May, while decreasing trend from June to December. Among this, the rainfall of spring in the north and the middle areas appears the increasing trend from February to May; the rainfall of summer in the middle and the south areas appears the decreasing trend on June, July and October. The structure of Time Series Model also shows that the monthly rainfall has manifestly changed. As far as the mei-yu season is concerned, the rainfall in the east area appears decreasing trend. In addition, typhoons' invading times and the rainfall they caused have no obvious changes. As the typhoons' movement, however, the rainfall caused by the typhoons' invading from Huatung area appears increasing trend and influences the whole Taiwan area, especially the east area apparently. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。