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題 名 | 自我相關需求對物流需求計劃績效影響之探討=A Study on the Performance of a Distribution Requirements Planning System Due to Autocorrelated Demands |
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作 者 | 周世玉; 廖賢洲; | 書刊名 | 農產運銷論叢 |
卷 期 | 3 1998.03[民87.03] |
頁 次 | 頁211-225 |
分類號 | 431.25 |
關鍵詞 | 物流需求計劃; 自我相關; 滾動排程; Distribution requirements planning; Auto correlation; Rolling schedule; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 物流需求計劃是近年來在物流系統中常被採用的規劃工具之一。在本研究中,我 們以模擬法評估多階通路結構下,自我相關需求對滾動排程( rolling schedule )之 DRP 績效的影響。本研究以一階自我迴歸過程( first order autoregressive process )為例 ,並以訂購成本、持有成本及缺貨成本之總和為衡量績效的準則。經模擬及統計分析後得到 以下的發現:當需求為一階自我迴歸過程,且以正確模式進行預測,在 EOQ 與 PPB 下,當 □愈小,成本績效愈佳。 而在 LFL 下,則恰好相反。而在□ <0,需求波動較劇烈時,PPB 因能彈性調整批量,因此表現明顯優於 EOQ 法。 若忽略自我相關而進行預測,系統的平均 存貨狀態會隨著□絕對值增加而出現極端異常的情形。 此外,在各種情況下 LFL 的表現均 落後於 EOQ 及 PPB 方法。 |
英文摘要 | The distribution requirements planning (DRP) has become one of the most popular planning tools for a physical distribution system in recent years. In this study, we use the simulation approach to assess the impacts of autocorrelated demands on the performance of a rolling-schedule based DRP system in a multi-echelon physical distribution channel. We use a first-order autoregressive process to illustrate the autocorrelated demands. As to measuring the DRP system performance, we employ the sum of the ordering cost, inventory cost, and shortage cost. After careful analysis, we have the following findings. When demands follow an autoregressive process of order one and the correct model is used to making forecasts, the cost performance of the DRP system increases as the autoregressive parameter □ decreases for both EOQ and PPB lotsizing methods. Teh LFL method just reverses this relationship. When □ is negative the PPB method is superior to the EOQ method for it can flexibly adjust lot size to absorb radical demand fluctuation. If making forecasts without considering the autocorrelation, the average inventory level of the system would result in extremely abnormal situation when □ increases in absolute value. In all situations, the LFL lotsizing method is inferior to the EOQ and PPB methods. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。