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| 題 名 | 統計方法在臺灣水稻病害流行學之應用=Application of Statistical Methods in Epidemiology of Rice Diseases in Taiwan |
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| 作 者 | 黃益田; 黃提源; | 書刊名 | 桃園區農業改良場研究報告 |
| 卷 期 | 31 1997.12[民86.12] |
| 頁 次 | 頁1-12 |
| 分類號 | 434.111 |
| 關鍵詞 | 統計方法; 應用; 水稻病害; 流行學; Statistical methods; Application; Epidemiology; Rice disease; |
| 語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
| 中文摘要 | 植物病害流行學是研究植物群體中病害在環境影響下發生發展的規律，以及病害 預測與病害管理的綜合科學。在臺灣，應用統計方法來研究病害流行學，最早見於1979年稻 熱病流行學之研究。葉稻熱病預測方面，主要應用Gompertz growth model以計算傳染速率 (Infection rate)；利用Principal component analysis選擇氣象之關鍵變數；以相關及迴 歸分析組建預測模式。在水稻葉稻熱病藥劑防治效果指標之評估研究：採用Monomolecular, Richards, Gompertz及Logistic Model以描述病勢進展；以鄧肯氏多變域測驗法檢定傳染速 率(Infection rate)，發病曲線下面積(area under disease progress curve, AUDPC)，發 病率(Disease severity)之優劣。在稻熱病空間型態分析方面：採用Rook檢定統計量； Moran's I統計量；Spatial lag autocorrelation以檢定其隨機性。並以三度空間繪圖法， 判明可能的病源及其散佈方向。在水稻白葉枯病流行學研究：則採用Monomolecular, Logistic, Gompertz及Richard Model以描述病勢進展；以Kruskal-Wallis H ANOVA Test比 較同一流域發生程度與水源距離之關係；以相關分析及迴歸分析組建預測模式。 |
| 英文摘要 | Epidemiology is the science of populations; the study of the development and spread of disease as well as disease forecasting and management. In Twiwan, statistical methods have been used to study the disease epidmiology of rice leaf blast since 1979. In development of disease forecasting models for rice leaf blast, the infection rate was calculated based on the Gompertz growth model; key climatic variables were selected by the principle component analysis; and models were developed by the correlation and regression analysis. In evaluation of fungicides for controlling leaf blast of rice, the Monomolecular, Richards, Gompertz and Logistic models were used to describe the progress of disease; Duncan's multiple range test was employed to determine the difference between infection rate, AUDPC and disease severity as the parameters for fungicide evaluation. In the spatial pattern analysis of rice leaf blast, Rook and Moran's I statistic, and spatial lag autocorrelation methods were used to test randomness of disease. Three-dimensional mapping method and disease gradient analysis were used to determine the disease focus and direction of disease spread. In the study of epidemiology of bacterial leaf blast, the Monomolecular, Logistic, Gompertz and Richard models were used to depict the progress of disease; Kruskal-wallis H ANOVA Test employed to compare the disease incidence at different sites of the same basin to proximity of source of water; and correlation and regression methods were used to build up the forecasting models. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。