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題名 | 應用灰色預測於人壽保險投保率之探討=A Study of the Grey Forecasting in the Life Insurance Ratio |
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作者 | 謝坤民; | 書刊名 | 高雄科學技術學院學報 |
卷期 | 27 1997.12[民86.12] |
頁次 | 頁345-356 |
分類號 | 563.73 |
關鍵詞 | 灰色系統; 灰色預測; 投保率; Grey system; Grey forecasting; Insurance ratio; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 影響人壽保險投保率之因素甚多,因而預測人壽保險投保率之多寡相當不易。本文提出灰色系統模式,應用在臺灣地區人壽保險投保率之預測,作者分別選取十筆(民國73年至82年)及四筆(民國79年至82年)原始數據來預測民國83年至88年臺灣地區人壽保險之投保率。經由研究結果發現灰色預測人壽保險投保率之精確度極高,其中十筆原始數據預測之精確度,為民國83年為97.35%,民國84年為94.00%,另以四筆原始數據預測之精確度,民國83年為98.58%,民國84年為99.79%。顯示灰色系統之預測精確度甚高,其中四筆原始數據又較十筆原始數據預測更為精確。 |
英文摘要 | The reasons which affect life insurance ratio are manifold; hence, it is quite difficult to forecast the insurance ratio. This articles presented by Grey System Mode applying in the forecasting of Taiwan area life insurance ratio. The author individually select ten original items (I 984-1993) and four items (1990-1993) of original statistics which forecast the life insurance ratio of Taiwan area from the year 1994 to 1999. With the result of research, I find that the grey forecasting of the life insurance ratio has been done precisely. Among them, the precision of the original forecasting of the ten items are: 97.35% in 1994, 94.00% in 1995. That of the other four items is : 98.58% in 1994, 99.79% in 1995. Obviously, the grey system is rather precise. Among them, the four items are even more precise than the ten items. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。