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題名 | 水文模式中噪音效應之研究及其應用=Study on the Noise Effect in a Hydrological Model and Its Applications |
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作者姓名(中文) | 王如意; 洪君伯; 李如晃; | 書刊名 | 農業工程學報 |
卷期 | 43:3 1997.09[民86.09] |
頁次 | 頁1-19 |
分類號 | 443 |
關鍵詞 | 有色噪音效應; 具外來投入自迴歸演算法; 洗牌複演進法; 即時參數校正方法; Colored noise effect; Autoregressive model with exogenous input; Shuffled complex evolution algorithm; Real-time least square method; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究之目的係探討水文模式於參數估算及其模擬時考量噪音與否所產生之影響 ,並藉以建立一種適合臺灣集水區特性之水文模擬程序。 文中以多層核胞模式中之 具外來投入自迴歸演算法為水文模擬之方式,且應用具有色噪音效應之線性系統參數估算法 及參數整體性優選之洗牌複演進法,檢定出模式中之各項最佳化參數,並以事先率定數場颱 洪事件所得之參數平均值及取該預報事件初始數個颱洪資料等兩種方式來探討對颱洪事件逕 流預報時初始值之選定。此外,本研究將具有色噪音效應之即時參數校正方法套配於水文模式 中,並視模式之參數具有時變性,以隨時更新正系統之狀態,期能更精確地預測颱洪時期計 劃集水區所可能帶來之逐時流量值。本文以淡水河流域內石門水庫上游集水區為研析地區, 以考量驗證噪音與否對水文模式套配即時校正方法之研析流程及其對集水區颱洪事件模擬之 適用程度。由模擬結果顯示,考量有色噪音效應後之模式模擬結果確實較未考量噪音效應者 為佳。本研究中考量有色噪音之整體研析流程期望可提供本省上游集水區防洪規劃及水庫營 運之參考應用。 |
英文摘要 | The purpose of this paper is to formulate a suitable hydrological simulation procedure for flood analysis. The estimation of model parameters with noise effect and the influence of noise effect on the hydrological simulation are investigated. The autoregressive model with exogenous input (ARX) based on the concept of the manifold cell model is adopted to simulate the rainfall-runoff proecss. The least-square estimation of model parameters with colored noise effect and the shuffled complex evolution (SCE) algorithm are applied to improve teh parameter identification. The real-time leastsquare method with colored noise effect is adequately employed to the runoff model. The model parameters are proved to be time-varying to update and correct the system condition at any time. By this way, the hourly discharge can timely be predicted in the project area. In case of lacking sufficient records, two alternative methods are used for initial value decision of verificationin rainfall-runoff process, one is equaling calibration from amny events and the other is calibrating from few data. To verify the applicability of th eproposed procedure, the upland watershed of Shihmen Reservoir in northern Taiwan is chosen as the project area. Results show that the simulated streamflows by considering colored noise effect are in better agreement with the recorded ones. The analytical approach adopted in this study could be utilized as a reference for hydrolgical planning and reservoir operation of project areas in Taiwan. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。