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題名 | A Grey System Modeling Approach to Power System Yearly Peak Load Forecasting=應用灰色系統建模方法於電力系統年尖峰負載預測 |
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作者 | 史光榮; 楊宏澤; 梁天旗; 黃慶連; Shih, Kuang-rong; Yang, Hong-tzer; Liang, Tian-chui; Huang, Ching-lien; |
期刊 | Proceedings of the National Science Council : Part A, Physical Science and Engineering |
出版日期 | 19970900 |
卷期 | 21:5 1997.09[民86.09] |
頁次 | 頁445-453 |
分類號 | 448.115 |
語文 | eng |
關鍵詞 | 灰色系統建模方法; 電力系統; 年尖峰負載預測; System modeling; Yearly peak load and occurring date forecasting; Topological forecasting; |
中文摘要 | 本文描述應用灰色系統建模技術於預測電力系統年尖峰負載及其發生日期的方法 。在年尖峰負載預測方面,本文提出一新的 GM(1,1) 與 GM(1,2) 混合模式;而在年尖峰負 載發生日期預測方面,本文則使用拓樸預測的方法。由於灰色系統建模技術只需很少的歷史 資料量(約 3 至 7 筆),即可建立高精確度之預測模式,正符合年尖峰負載歷史資料相當 少(一年只有一筆)的特性。所發展之模式經實際應用於預測台電系統年尖峰負載及其發生 日期,並與現有方法比較,以證實其有效性。 |
英文摘要 | Applications of grey system modeling techniques to prediction of power system yearly peak loads and their occurring dates are described in this paper. For yearly peak load forecasting, a new hybrid grey model of GM(1, 1) in conjunction with GM(1,2) is proposed. Corresponding dates on which peak loads occur are predicted by using the topological forecasting method. Complying with the characteristics of minimal historical yearly peak load records (only one peak load value for a year), the grey system techniques used in this paper only require a small amount of historical data (3 to 7 points of data) to set up a highly accurate forecasting model. The effectiveness of the developed models is demonstrated by predicting the actual Taiwan Power (Taipower) yearly peak loads and their related occurring dates. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。