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題 名 | 臺灣地區廿四小時設計雨型之研究=A Study on Design 24-Hours Duration Rainfall Hyetographs in Taiwan |
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作 者 | 張守陽; | 書刊名 | 農業工程學報 |
卷 期 | 43:2 1997.06[民86.06] |
頁 次 | 頁39-55 |
分類號 | 328.63 |
關鍵詞 | 設計雨型; 統計特性; 位序百分比評估; 均值偏差評估; Design rainfall hyetograph; Statistical properties; Ranking-percents evaluation; Mean deviate percentage analyses; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究目的在於開發新觀念設計雨型,並初步建立客觀的評估方法。文中主要考 慮降雨事件中之降雨量機率分佈特性,藉此降雨特性研發 24 小時延時設計雨型,繼而比較 現有設計雨型與個人發展設計雨型。 主要成果分述如下:本研究共研發 PAR 法、NOR 法及 LNOR 法等三種新設計雨型,新雨型可避免一般設計雨型之線性套配缺點。 各雨型求算之降 雨重心差異不明顯。 HUFF 法與 PILG 法雨型呈現扁平起伏形狀,雖平均估計誤差最小,但 對尖峰時間之掌握較不理想,於尖峰雨量明顯低估。其餘設計雨型類似單峰狀三角形,具有 較大之尖峰雨量,尖峰時間較為一致。由於實際降雨事件特性參數離散度頗大,因此各設計 雨型之平均估計誤差值都不小,而且其誤差值皆頗接近,即使選擇較小誤差之設計雨型方法 ,亦難以判斷此設計雨型之代表性。 以尖峰降雨位序百分比而言, 除了 LNOR 法雨型約為 98%,其餘各雨型皆小於 50%, 其中 HUFf 法與 PILG 法之參數百分比過低, 僅約為 3%, YEN 法雨型尖峰設計值亦約為實際降雨事件該參數之三分之一,以 IDF 法雨型及 PAR 法雨 型較為接近事件平均值。各設計雨型於尖峰降雨與尖峰時間之整體考量下,傳統之 HUFF 法 與 PILG 法有著較大差異。 各雨量站皆以 PAR 法之「均值偏差」最小, 其次為 NOR 法及 MAM 法。綜言之,PAR 法與 NOR 法雨型總體表現不錯,且於不同地區模擬結果穩定。 |
英文摘要 | According to the statistics' properties of rainfall event, several new concepts for design hyetographs of twenty-four hours duration were constructed in this study. Consequently, various impartial evaluation methods were also developed to have a better understanding of characteristics of design hyetographs. The primary conclusions may be stated as follows: Three new probability-based design hyetographs (namely, PAR pattern, NOR pattern and LNOR rainfall pattern) were constructed. Those newly developed rainfall hyetographs can keep away from the linear fitness from which the existing rainfall hyetographs were derived. The weighting times for all design hyetographs resembled each other. The HUFF and PILG patterns had an undulate shape; therefore, their time to peak was difficult to estimate. Moreover, the rainfall peak of these two methods were pretty underestimated compared with actual rainfall events. The design hyetographs except for HUFF and PILG methods had a single peak triangular shape not only wiht a larger rainfall peak and but also with consistency of time to peak. Due to the diversity of the characteristics parameters for the acutal rainfall events, the mean of sum of aquare error' for the rainfall hyetographs are all with large amoundts and with the approximately same values. The so-called representative rainfall hyetograph' can not proposed easily even thought the hyetographs with the least mean of sum of square error' was chosen. Therefore, an objective evaluation method is needed. The Ranking-percents of rainfall peak for LNOR patterns reached up to 96% and were the highest rankings among those rainfall patterns. Except for LNOR, the Ranking-ercents of the rainfall peak for other patterns were generally less than 50%. Furthermore, the design rainfall peak for three pattern, Huff, PILG and YEN, were highly underestimated compared to those for acutal rainfall events. For example, the design rainfall peak for YEN pattern only had one third of actual rainfall event peak. A new method named 'Mean deviate percentage' is used to evaluate the peak intensity and time to peak together. On the whole, the PAR pattern has the least deviations, and those resulting from NOR and MAM follow. In contrast, the design hyetographs obtained from the traditional methods such as Huff and PILG have larger deviations. In a word, all the hyetographs designed in this study performed well and stably with various evaluations. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。