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來源資料
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題 名 | 臺灣地區房地產景氣與經濟、金融變數之共整研究=An Application of Cointegration to Investigate Long-Term Relationships Between Economic and Financial Variables and Real Estate Business Cycles in Taiwan |
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作 者 | 林恩從; 高斐蘭; | 書刊名 | 東吳經濟商學學報 |
卷 期 | 20 1998.02[民87.02] |
頁 次 | 頁21-46 |
分類號 | 554.89 |
關鍵詞 | 房地產景氣; 火車頭產業; 共整; 誤差修正模型; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究從市場供需平衡的角度出發,彙總已往影響住宅價格及房地產氣景循環的各 項因素, 運用 ADF 定態檢定、共整技術及誤差修正模型的概念,從房地產基準循環、投資 、交易等三個指標和總體、金融面變數之間的關係,探討臺灣地區房地產業的「向後關聯」 程度及其與總體經濟景氣間的相互影響性。由本研究的結果總論之:(1) 房地產景氣循環指 標與總體、金融面變數存在共整現象,亦即,房地產的總體活動和投資、交易決策與總體經 濟之間,具有長期均衡關係。(2) 就短期而言,僅本國一般銀行存款餘額的變動會影響房地 產基準循環指標的當期變化。另外,除了貨幣供給額對投資、交易面景氣循環指標具有解釋 能力,大致上,金融變數變動對房地產景氣循環的影響並不顯著,此結果蘊涵著,短期金融 政策的效果可能不大。(3) 房地產市場帶動總體經濟成長的「向後關聯」程度亦不明顯。這 意涵著政府應尊重經濟市場機制的自由運作,不必企圖以房地產業來振興經濟景氣,即政府 毋需因為總體經濟的不景氣而刺激房地產市場,不必強調總體景氣過熱而打壓房地產市場, 而應以總體經濟之發展為政策前提及考量。 |
英文摘要 | This study investigates the long-term relationships between economic and financial variables and real estate business cycles in Taiwan. Based on the housing industry's characteristics, three different indexes are employed to represent this industry. A technique which combines the cointegration concept and the error correction model is applied. Several important conclusions are obtained. First, real estate business cycles are found to have significant long-term cointegrating relationships with some of the economic and financial variables. Second, short-term causal impacts of financial variables on the housing industry are not strongly supported, implying that short-term monetary policies may not be effective in mastering this particular industry. Third, no enough evidence can support the concept that the housing industry has a leading role in Taiwan's economy. Policy implications based on the empirical results are also discussed. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。