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題 名 | 河堤溢流之風險分析=The Analysis of Risk Due to Levee Overflow |
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作 者 | 黃翰林; 徐義人; 余家慶; | 書刊名 | 農業工程學報 |
卷 期 | 43:1 1997.03[民86.03] |
頁 次 | 頁36-48 |
分類號 | 443.64 |
關鍵詞 | 風險分析; 可靠度; 安全因子; 一階二級動差法; 均值一階二級動差法; Risk analysis; Reliability; Safety; FOSM; MFOSM; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 興建河堤的主要目的在於維護住在河川附近的居民免於受到洪水的威脅,但是多 數的工程設計,常常面臨資訊不足、資料缺乏之情形以及變數的隨機性…等等問題,使得在 規劃與決策過程當中往往必須在不確定的情況完成因而有風險的產生。 評估風險的方法一般常見的有: 復現期法、直接積分法、均值一階二級動差法( MFOSM ) 、高等一階二級動差法( AFOSM )、Monte Carlo 模擬術( MCS )以及 Latin Hypercube 模擬術( LHS )…等等,而本文所採用的方法及以一階二級動差法為主, 考慮各水文量的 不確定性,以嘗試建立河堤溢流之風險模式,並比較由 MFOSM 及 AFOSM 兩者所求得之結果 ,再以 MCS 及 LHS 兩法做驗證為輔,以期求得正確溢流風險值。 本文研究重點在於瞭解風險分析之方法以及如何描述變數之不確定性,將不確定性因子納入 風險計算求溢流機率,再比較堤防在改善前後風險值變化之情形,並建立風險與中間安全因 子間之關係曲線以供設計與分析工程之成本效益時之參考。 |
英文摘要 | The main purpose of constructing levee will keep the people living near river from flood. In most of engineering design, we often face the situation of information and data insufficiency, and the problems of the random characteristics of variables and so on. Risk, however, is unavoidable because most of the planning and decision would be done under such circumstance of uncertain conditions. The methods of calculating risk usually include the follows: method of return period; method of direct integration; mean-value first-order second-moment method (MFOSM); advanced first-order second-moment method (AFOSM); Monte Carls simulation (MCS); and Latin Hypercube simulation (LHS) and so on. The main method in this paper is first-order second-moment method. We will consider the characteristics of uncertain-ty of variables and try to establish the risk model of levee overflow, and will also compare the results with MFOSM and AFOSM, and verify the results using MCS and LHS. The main point in this paper is to understand the methods of risk analysis and realize how to describe the uncertainty of variables. We will consider the effect of the uncertainty factors in the process of calculating risk, and try to understand and the change of the fisk value after the improvement planning and establish the relation between risk and central safety factor, and it would be provided for design and cost-benefit analysis. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。