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題名 | 模擬分析市場干擾因素對行銷生命週期影響=A Stochastic Model for Marketing Interventions on a Product Life Cycle |
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作 者 | 鄭舜仁; | 書刊名 | 正修學報 |
卷期 | 9 1996.07[民85.07] |
頁次 | 頁223-232 |
分類號 | 496.4 |
關鍵詞 | 隨機擴散模型; 行銷組合變數; 時間數列; Stochastic diffusion model; Marketing mix variables time series; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 自從1969年Bass模型發表以來,在「創新之擴散」的模型研究方面,已經產生數 十個衍生而出的模型,嘗試重新探討結構上及觀念上的假設,以及支持擴散模型的估計假設 。 近年來,在行銷學方面的研究,行銷合變數,特別是價格( Bass, 1980. Jain,1989 ) 、廣告( Horsky and Simon 1983 )、 行銷( Jones and Ritz, 1991 )、以及供應限制 ( Jain, Mahajan and Muller, 1991 )的影響,均已經被列入模型中探討。這些貢獻提供 。對於市場組合變數在新產品的成長模式所造成敘述性及規範性的影響。但是,這些模型仍 然有一個觀念上的限制。這些模型並沒有同時顧全所有主要的行銷組合變數,包括競爭的變 數。而且,他們忽略了因其他未被確認的行銷組合變數,或某些時性未明的干擾所造成的影 響,從而導致對模型變數的偏差估算。 在這篇論文中,我將 Bass 模型延伸至 Stochastic 模型,來輔助模擬分析市場干涉因素對產品生命週期的影響。 |
英文摘要 | Since the publication of the Bass model in 1969, research on the modeling of the diffusion of innovations has resulted in a body of literature consisting of several dozen exitended diffusion models attempting to reexamine the structural and conceptual assumptions and estimation issues underlying the difflusion models. In recent years, a number of effects have been made in the markering science literature to incorporate the effect of markcring mix variables, especially price (Bass, 1980. Jain, 1989), advertising (Horsky and Simon 1983), distribution (Jones and Ritz, 1991) and supply restriction (Jain, Mahajan and Muller, 1991) into this model. While these contributions provide insights into the descriptive and the normative ingluences of marketing mix vaniables on the growth pattern of a new product, there is a conceptual limitation associated with these models. These models do not capture all the major markering mix varialbes including the competitive variables simultaneously and they ignore the impact of the effects caused by unidentified marketing variables or by interventions when the timing of the intervention is unknown, and hence leads to the biased estimations of the model parameters. In this paper, I extend the Bass-model to stochastic model that can assist in assessing the impact of market interventions on a product life cycle by intervention analysis. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。