查詢結果分析
來源資料
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題 名 | Bandwagon, Underdog, and Strategic Voting: A Case Study of the 1992 U. S. Presidential Election=樂隊花車,投射效應及策略性投票--一九九二年美國總統大選個案研究 |
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作 者 | 彭文正; | 書刊名 | 選舉研究 |
卷 期 | 3:2 1996.11[民85.11] |
頁 次 | 頁33-70 |
分類號 | 572.3 |
關鍵詞 | 樂隊花車效應; 投射效應; 策略性投票; 美國總統大選; 投票行為; 政治心理學; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究著眼於探究美國選民對候選人之喜好程度核對候選人受支持程度之臆測間之互動關係,同時嘗試瞭解在其他因素被控制下,這兩項因素如何影響選民之投票取向。另外,選民的政治興趣、對民調結果的注意程度,和對民意分布之認知三者間的關係亦是本研究的興趣所在。 樣本抽樣自美國威斯康辛州首府所在地之丹郡,美國威斯康辛大學大眾傳播研究中心在1992年美國總統大選前兩週,以隨機抽樣方式電話訪問了421名合格選民。 結果顯示:(1)政治興趣愈高者,對民調結果愈注意。女性、教育水準較低者,或政黨屬性較強之民眾較為注意民調結果。(2)對民調結果較為注意者,通常較能正確瞭解選情。(3)民眾傾向於低估喜好之候選人的主要對手之受歡迎程度,這也驗證了認知不和諧理論中之心理現象。(4)選民對候選人之喜好程度對投票傾向有重大影響,對候選人是否有勝選機會之臆測相形之下並不重要,然而對於落後之布希及裴洛之受歡迎程度之臆測使支持者產生某種程度的策略性投票心理。 |
英文摘要 | During the last 50 years. as election polls in the U. S. and in most other countries have proliferated. there has been an ongoing controversy over their electoral effects. Their perceived influence on election outcomes has been sufficient to lead to calls for legislation restricting the publishing of opinion polls during a campaign, restrictions that already exist in countries as diverse as Germany. Japan, France, South Korea. and Brazil (McAllister and Studlar 1991; Mutz. 1992) . These restrictions suggest that pre-election polls have some effects on election outcomes, or at least that some people suspect some effects and think the results could. more or less, hurt the fairness of an election. Counter arguments conclude that perception of public opinion has little impact on vote preference (Asher 1992, Marsh. 1983; Merkle 1991 ) . Many believe that traditional factors such as affect. candidates, issue. party. etc ., are the factors that determine vote preference rather than the perceptions of public preference ( Niemi and Weishberg, 1993 ) . Despite these arguments. evidence from surveys and experimental studies remains inconclusive. One of the earliest discussions of polls' effect on voting. by Lazarsfeld. Berelson. and Gaudet (1948) , found many voters attempting to sense the direction of public opinion and the outcome in order to vote "with the winner. " Follow-up work (Berelson. Lazarsfeld, and McPhee. 1954) revealed that a bandwagon effect (perception guiding preference) and a projection explanation (preference guiding perception) carried about equal weight in presidential election voting. Some laboratory studies of artificial elections coupled with bogus poll results produced an "underdog" effect of people shifting to the minority rather than majority view (Ceci. 1982, Fletias, 1971 ) . Evidence from the 1988 NES Super Tuesday Study showed that some voters vote for their second (or even lower) choice rather than their most preferred candidate in order to stop another candidate they like even less (Abramson et. ai, 1992 ) . |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。