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題 名 | 臺灣地區最高溫、最低溫長期趨勢之研究=An Analysis of the Asymmetric Trends of Maximum and Minimum Temperature in Taiwan |
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作 者 | 程萬里; 陳奕祥; | 書刊名 | 東海學報 |
卷 期 | 37:2(理學院) 民85.07 |
頁 次 | 頁109-123 |
分類號 | 328.43 |
關鍵詞 | 臺灣地區; 最高溫; 最低溫; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 在全球環境變遷的前提下,區域性的氣候研究有其特殊且重要的意義。本研究是 利用時間序列統計方法,分析臺灣地區長期氣象資料(最高溫及最低溫),希望從另一角 度探討本地區氣候環境的變遷。研究顯示:臺灣地區長期最高溫及最低溫的變化,最高溫 是呈現平穩或略微上升的狀態;最低溫則有顯著的上升趨勢。整體而言,最低溫的上升速 率(0.014℃/年)與平均氣溫相若(0.012℃/年),但卻為最高溫(0.004℃/年)的3.5倍。這種趨 勢的不一致性,使得月平均最高、最低溫的溫差(Monthly mean maximum and minimum Temperatures Range, MTR)持續減小(-0.010℃/年)。造成溫差減小的原因除了的自然變動 外,溫室氣體、懸浮微粒等人類活動產物的增加,也有可能造成潛在性的影響,但仍有待 進一步研究。 |
英文摘要 | On the premise of global climate change, it is of importance to have a clear picture on the regionals. This study uses the stochastic method of time series analysis to analyze long-term (1897-1994) meteorological data, i.e. monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures in Taiwan. We found a significant increasing of monthly mean minimum temperatures, which correlated with previous findings that reveal a general rise in temperature. However the monthly mean maximum temperatures have shown only noticeable trends of 0.004℃/year. The increase of the minimum temperature (0.014℃/year) is almost the same of the mean temperature trend (0.012℃/year). The decreased diurnal temperature range (i.e. difference between daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature) in Taiwan is well fitted with the global trend as mentioned in the IPCC report (1992) and by Karl et al. (1993). The natural climatic variation and anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases and aerosols may be the causes of the observed changes in the diurnal temperature range, but these remain to be further studied. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。