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題 名 | 銀行資本支出評估及風險分析之研究 |
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作 者 | 劉家駿; | 書刊名 | 國立中興大學臺中夜間部學報 |
卷 期 | 1 1995.11[民84.11] |
頁 次 | 頁221-248 |
分類號 | 562.29 |
關鍵詞 | 銀行資本支出; 銀行資本預算; 敏感度分析; 風險分析; 沉入成本; Bank capital expenditures; Bank capital budgeting; Sensibity analysis; Risk analysis; Sunk costs; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 臺灣地區各家銀行紛到海外增設分行除可配合政府金融國際化之政策,提升競爭 能力,並達成績極培訓金融國際化人才之目的,惟各銀行之海外分支機構普遍發生經營績效 不彰之現象。由於開設新分行是屬於銀行之資本支出,是一種沉入成本,錯誤的資本支出決 策,易導致財務危機,甚至倒閉。因此,從企業長期經營觀點,資本計畫完成後之持續經營 績效不彰,將導致銀行財務結構之惡化,影響銀行之生存。因而,每個投資計畫應事先深入 探討技術、經濟、財務之各種可行性。對未來各種可能之變動亦應作好敏感度分析與風險性 分析,尤其對發展國外或大陸設立據點時,更應作好國家風險分析。 由於銀行資本支出預期未來的營運情況是具有未確定性與風險性,因此利用數學驗證或歷史 經驗,找出每一事件發生之機率,評估資本支出之投資效益。並可根據市場預測及銀行規模 ,計算營運量及平均利率,亦可估算景氣循環與物價之變動,據以作敏感度分析,藉以評估 各種變數發生時,所出現不同之投資效益,避免過於樂觀而誤導投資決策。此外,國外投資 更應注意國家風險,以決定國外投資之限額,確定一個銀行機構願意承擔投資某一國家之支 付能力。 |
英文摘要 | Many banks Taiwan established branches overseas, It could not only accord with the government's policy of financial internationalization and lift the banks' competitive abilities, but also server the purpose training staff members to become a master of financial internationlization, However, most of the branches did not have a successful performance. A wrong decision on bank investment is likely to lead to financial crisis and even to bankruptcy, for the investment in a new branch, being the bank's capital expenditure, is a knid of sunk cost, From the viewpoint of an enterprise's long-term operation, failure to perform successfully in continuous operation after completion of the investment project would lead to the worsening of the bnak's financial structure and threaten its survival. That is why a deep research into the technological, economic and financial feasibilities should be made beforehand for each investment project. A sensitivity analysis and a risk analysis should also be made on possible future changes, Bisides, a country risk analysis should be more needed to be made particular in developing investment points in foreign countries or mainland China. Because what is expected of the future operation status of the bank investment is uncertain and would confront riskes, performance of the bank investment should be evaluated by way of mathematical examinations or historical experience to find out the probability of each occurrence. Busiess volume and average interest rate could be obtained through calculations regarding market forecast and scale of the bank. A sensitivity analysis could be made by means of estimaitons on the changes of influence cycles and prices to evaluate different investment effects showed up in different changes and to avoid misleading the decision on investment due to being over-optimistic. Besides, more attention should be paid to the country risk in making investment in a foreign country, It is a way to decide the upper limit of the amount to be invested abroad and to make sure the disbursement ability of the foreign country which has to do with to what volume it is willing to let funds flow out of the country. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。