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題名 | 應用分層抽樣技術於蒙地卡羅歷時發電系統CO[feaf]污染量評估 |
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作者 | 黃思倫; 陳文雄; 林雅慧; | 書刊名 | 逢甲學報 |
卷期 | 28 1995.11[民84.11] |
頁次 | 頁615-628 |
分類號 | 448.115 |
關鍵詞 | 蒙地卡羅CO[feaf]污染量; 發電系統; 分層抽樣技術; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 在強調環境保護的今日,如何降低溫室效應已成刻不容緩的研究主題。對於電力 系統調度人員而言,如何能以簡捷的模式估算發電系統污染量,將有助於在兼顧系統安全及 減少污染量的條件下做最佳決定。由於發電機組的故障與修復具有隨機性,而機組出力狀況 又影響污染量,因此發電污染量之估計屬機率問題。 本論文設計一個利用分層及比例估計的蒙地卡羅 CO �祕穫V量模擬法,其可降低模擬之變異 數、增加準確性。分層法中介紹最佳分層的規則,並實際驗證於臺灣電力系統之 CO �祕穫V 量的計算。 |
英文摘要 | Nowadays the emphasis on environmental protection is how to reduce the greenhouse effect and this becomes an import theme for studying. For system operators, it is helpful to use an efficient model to estimate the pollutants emission before making any dispatch decision which can lower the emission of pollutants with consideration of system security. Because of the random outage and repair characteristics of system generating units, as well as the appreciable impact of system generation on the emission of air pollutants, the estimation is essentially a probabilistic problem. In this paper, a computer algorithm which combines the variance reduction technique to enchance the precision of Monte Carlo CO �� pollutants emission simulation is designed. The techniques included are stratified and proportional estimates. For stratified sampling, a mathematical rule which can always lead to a near-optimum stratification is presented. Numberical test results by applying the algorithm for the evaluation of CO �� emission in actual Taiwan power system are examined. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。