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題名 | 利用模糊集理論推估河川流量之研究= |
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作者 | 張斐章; 徐國麟; |
期刊 | 農業工程學報 |
出版日期 | 19901200 |
卷期 | 36:4 1990.12[民79.12] |
頁次 | 頁1-12 |
分類號 | 351.819 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 河川流量; 模糊集理論; |
中文摘要 | 傳統的集合理論,對事件之發生,以邏輯之「真」與「偽」來命題,此一邏輯之判斷方式,對於件本身具有含糊概念時,其使無法處理的很好。模糊集合理論之主要概念,乃是以一從屬函數來描述一事件出現之關連程度。因此,其命題可以非絕對之「真」或「偽」決定,而以具有某體程度的真實性來描述之。因而,其提供專家系統建立者對於不精確及不確定之資料處理或不明確之語言表達方式一個極有效可行之方式。 水資源規劃常係藉由統數學以決定未來氣象或流量發生之情況(或大小等級),但 實際運轉上並沒有一個客觀準則可決定大小等級之真確數值,因這之間隱含著模糊特質,故以模糊概念及經由適當之模糊分類之從屬函數將可用來分辨預測之事物。本研究以石門水庫上游的高義站月流量之推估為實證範例。結果顯示此一方法將可更精確合理的描述實際河川流量預估情況。 |
英文摘要 | Classical set theory is governed by a logic that permits a proposition to possess one of only two values: “true” or “false”. This logic does not accord well with the need to represent vague concepts. The key idea in fuzzy set theory is that an element has a degree of membership in a fuzzy set. Thus a proposition need not be simply true or false, but may be partly true to any degree. Consequently, fuzzy reasoning is specifically designed to deal with the inexactness (or fuzziness) that is present in the knowledge used by human experts. The concept of fuzzy logic will assist expert system builders greatly in the handling of imprecise and inexact data as well as linguistic imprecision. In water resource planning, the grades of weather or streamflow conditions are estimated or classified by mathematical or statistical methods. However, there is not strict demarcation line for the classification of a forecasting object. Hence the concepts involve fuzziness. If fuzzy concept is used to the classification of forecasting are designed correspondingly, we can make a stream forecast of classification by the method of fuzzy mathematics. The monthly streamflow of the Kaoi station which is a upper station of the Shih-Men reservoir is used as a case study. The result shows that method can more precisely represent the practical case of the streamflow forecast. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。