查詢結果分析
來源資料
頁籤選單縮合
| 題 名 | 「俄烏戰爭」以來「俄朝中抗美同盟」形成之可能性評估:「危險同盟」的觀點=Assessment of the Possible Emergence of a 'Russia-North Korea-China Anti-U.S. Alliance' following the Russia-Ukraine War: A Perspective on the 'Dangerous Alliance' |
|---|---|
| 作 者 | 馬準威; | 書刊名 | 遠景基金會季刊 |
| 卷 期 | 26:3 2025.07[民114.07] |
| 頁 次 | 頁99-150 |
| 分類號 | 578.48 |
| 關鍵詞 | 危險同盟; 俄烏戰爭; 俄朝中關係; 抗衡扈從; 避險籠絡; Dangerous alliance; Russia-Ukraine war; Russia-North Korea-China relations; Balancing and bandwagoning; Hedging and tethering; |
| 語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
| 中文摘要 | 俄烏戰爭爆發以來,國際社會對俄羅斯制裁嚴厲,令其結盟行為 發生巨大變化,俄羅斯分別尋求深化與中國及北韓的「夥伴關係」。 朝中原存有的《中朝友好合作互助條約》是共同防禦條約,加上 2024 年 6 月俄朝新簽署《全面戰略夥伴關係條約》,約定一方受他 國侵略,另一方需提供援助。外界始憂慮,一個以抗美為目的的「俄 朝中同盟」儼然成形。然本文運用「危險同盟」理論的同盟「內部管 理」與「外部抗衡」概念,重新分析俄朝中三組雙邊關係後發現,俄 中是「抗衡—避險同盟」、朝中是「抗衡—籠絡同盟」、俄朝是「抗 衡—抗衡同盟」。基於三組雙邊關係的同盟性質各異,將使彼此在同 盟承諾與凝聚力上產生落差,致三方同盟直接對接困難,使俄朝中抗 美同盟成形可能性低。 |
| 英文摘要 | Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, Russia has significantly shifted its approach to external alliances in response to severe international sanctions. Russia has sought to deepen its “partnerships” with China and North Korea. Notably, North Korea and China have long been bound by the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance, which is essentially a mutual defense pact. Additionally, in June 2024, Russia and North Korea signed the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty, which mandates mutual assistance if either party is attacked. This development has raised concerns about the emergence of a trilateral Russia-North Korea-China alliance aimed at countering the United States. This paper employs the “Dangerous Alliance” theory, focusing on the concepts of “internal management” and “external balancing” within alliances to re-examine the bilateral relationships among Russia, North Korea, and China. The findings indicate that the Russia-China partnership is a “balancinghedging alliance,” the North Korea-China alliance a “balancing-tethering alliance,” with only the Russia-North Korea partnership qualifying as a “balancing-balancing alliance.” Due to the differences in the nature of these bilateral alliances, the levels of commitment and cohesion among the three parties vary, making it difficult to directly integrate the three into a trilateral alliance. Hence, the possibility of forming a cohesive Russia-North Korea-China alliance remains low. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。