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| 題 名 | 俄烏戰爭對南高加索地區權力格局影響=The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on the Power Dynamics in the South Caucasus |
|---|---|
| 作 者 | 朱祥中; | 書刊名 | 國防雜誌 |
| 卷 期 | 40:3 2025.09[民114.09] |
| 頁 次 | 頁25-54 |
| 分類號 | 578.19 |
| 關鍵詞 | 納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫衝突; 俄烏戰爭; 南高加索; 權力格局; 權力再分配; Nagorno-Karabakh conflict; Russo-Ukrainian war; South Caucasus; Power dynamics; Power redistribution; |
| 語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
| DOI | 10.6326/NDJ.202509_40(3).0002 |
| 中文摘要 | 2025年8月亞塞拜然與亞美尼亞領導人在美國白宮峰會達成和平協議,開放基礎建 設合作,顯示美國權力延伸至南高加索,也意味俄羅斯長期影響力受挫。然本文以為 俄國權力弱化的現象應於亞塞拜然對納卡地區採取軍事行動前便已展現。故研究時間 界定於2022至2023年間,並依此分析促成亞塞拜然在2023年9月19日完成南高加索權力 再分配,並鞏固優勢的過程。研究輔以結構現實主義視角,從外交、軍事及各項制裁 等面向檢視俄國實力衰退情況,並析論亞塞拜然能把握契機的原因,過程補充能源經 濟與權力再分配互動的探討。結論延伸觀察2025年白宮峰會,說明美國如何填補俄國 衰退後的權力,深化俄烏戰爭背景下對地區秩序變遷的理解,並為地區穩定性與權力 重組提供新觀點。 |
| 英文摘要 | In August 2025, the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia reached a peace agreement during the White House Summit in the United States, opening new avenues for infrastructure cooperation. This development highlighted the extension of U.S. influence into the South Caucasus and signaled the decline of Russia's long-standing dominance in the region. However, this article argues that signs of Russia's weakening power had already become evident prior to Azerbaijan's military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023. Accordingly, the research period is defined as 2022–2023, with particular emphasis on Azerbaijan's decisive military action on September 19, 2023, which reshaped the regional balance of power and consolidated its strategic advantages. Using the analytical framework of structural realism, this study examines Russia's decline through indicators such as diplomatic isolation, military setbacks, and international sanctions. It also analyzes the factors that enabled Azerbaijan to capitalize on this opportunity. Special attention is given to the interplay between energy economics and the redistribution of power, which facilitated Azerbaijan's consolidation of regional dominance. The conclusion extends the analysis to the August 2025 White House Summit, underscoring how the United States filled the vacuum left by Russia's retreat. This perspective contributes to a deeper understanding of the transformation of the regional order amid the Russia–Ukraine war and offers new insights into stability and power reconfiguration in the South Caucasus. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。