查詢結果分析
來源資料
頁籤選單縮合
| 題 名 | 臺北市全災害--地震、水災、土石流之風險分析=Analysis of All Natural Disaster--Earthquakes, Floods, Debris Flow Risks in Taipei City |
|---|---|
| 作 者 | 潘宗毅; 李佳晏; 陳力豪; 王嘉和; | 書刊名 | 水土保持學報 |
| 卷 期 | 54:2 2024.12[民113.12] |
| 頁 次 | 頁3349-3362 |
| 分類號 | 367.28 |
| 關鍵詞 | 風險分析; 地震; 水災; 土石流; Risk analysis; Earthquakes; Floods; Debris flow; |
| 語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
| 中文摘要 | 隨著氣候變遷的影響,臺北市近年來頻繁發生極端天氣事件,包括高溫、暴雨、乾旱等災 害,同時,中央氣象署警告臺灣與整個太平洋火環帶可能進入「地震活躍期」,首都直下型地震 的風險引起了對城市災防韌性的關切。因此本研究旨在建立臺北市全災害風險分析框架,並應 用於強化城市的災防韌性。本研究進行了風險分析,應用聯合國國際減災戰略署和國家防災科 技中心提供的韌性城市分析模式,評估臺北市的抗災能力。透過建立全災害風險分析框架,以 臺北市常見的天然災害為例進行分析,將結果納入地區災害防救計畫,以提供相關單位優化防 災工作。 在分析中,專注於臺北市有能發生的地震、水災、土石流災害,並將分析結果結合韌性城 市評估指標,以確認全災害風險分析框架的實用性。透過專家座談會和研討會的方式,本研究 獲得了有價值的建議,並將分析成果納入臺北市地區災害防救計畫中。研究結果顯示,風險分 析框架主要聚焦於風險評估,強調將結果應用於政策規劃,為防災相關機構提供風險管理的基 礎。具體而言,框架由災害潛勢和社會脆弱度經量化後相乘得出災害衝擊度,並繪製風險矩陣 圖。社會脆弱度的評估依據國家防災科技中心的減災動資料,涉及暴露量、減災整備、應變及 復原等方面。 進一步分析社會脆弱度的結果顯示,一些社區的防災弱勢族群人數較高,因此社會福利系 統可優先考慮將其納入防災輔導。針對特定災害情境,如地震、水災、土石流,詳細估算了其 發生機率,並提出相應的建議,如私有建築物的耐震補強和淹水區域的工程改善。最終,本研 究提供了一個全面的災害風險分析框架,可供臺北市地方政府和相關機構優化災害防救工作, 以提升城市的災防韌性。 |
| 英文摘要 | With the impact of climate change, Taiwan's Taipei City has been experiencing frequent extreme weather events, including high temperatures, heavy rainfall, and droughts, significantly disrupting the stability of urban life. Additionally, the Central Weather Administration warns that Taiwan, situated in the Pacific Ring of Fire, may have entered a "seismically active period," heightening the risk of a catastrophic earthquake. The resilience of the city's disaster prevention and response will determine the speed and quality of post-disaster recovery. Hence, it is imperative to establish a comprehensive disaster risk analysis framework tailored to the city's specific characteristics. This study aims to explore international methodologies for disaster risk analysis, integrating them with the localized features of Taipei City to construct a suitable framework for a comprehensive disaster risk assessment. The study applies the resilience city analysis model provided by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction and the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR) to evaluate the city's resilience. The focus is on enhancing organizational preparedness, risk identification, financial strategies, urban development, natural environment, systems, social capacity, infrastructure, emergency response, and recovery in the face of various disasters. Through the establishment of the comprehensive disaster risk analysis framework, common natural disasters in Taipei City are analyzed as examples. The results are incorporated into the regional disaster prevention and rescue plan, serving as a basis for relevant authorities to refine disaster management efforts. This study, in its final report phase, has completed literature reviews and the establishment of the all-hazard risk analysis framework. Case studies on earthquake, water-related disasters, debris flow, and large-scale collapses have been conducted. Expert seminars and workshops have further validated and promoted the project's findings, eventually integrating them into the regional disaster prevention and rescue plan. Key findings and recommendations include a focus on risk assessment for policy planning, utilizing the risk matrix to quantify disaster impact by multiplying hazard intensity and social vulnerability. The social vulnerability index was computed based on NCDR's disaster reduction data, covering exposure, disaster reduction preparedness, response, and recovery. The analysis revealed that communities ranking high in social vulnerability are characterized by a significant population of vulnerable groups, prompting suggestions for social welfare systems to prioritize disaster-prone populations. The research quantified probabilities of earthquake, water-related disasters, debris flow, and proposed specific measures, such as seismic reinforcement for aged or structurally deficient buildings and engineered improvements for flood-prone areas. The study also called for a deeper examination of various causes contributing to disasters, such as ground acceleration and soil liquefaction during earthquakes, emphasizing the need to revise the risk analysis framework to encompass a comprehensive evaluation of single disasters with multiple causes. In conclusion, this study contributes a valuable and comprehensive disaster risk analysis framework tailored for Taipei City. The framework, coupled with specific case analyses, provides actionable insights for local authorities and relevant organizations to optimize disaster preparedness and enhance the city's overall resilience. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。