頁籤選單縮合
| 題 名 | 重點產業領先指標研究=A Study on Leading Indicators for Key Industries |
|---|---|
| 作 者 | 陳劍虹; | 書刊名 | 經濟研究. 國家發展委員會經濟發展處 |
| 卷 期 | 25 2025.05[民114.05] |
| 頁 次 | 頁(1)1-(1)30 |
| 分類號 | 484.5 |
| 關鍵詞 | 資訊電子工業; 景氣循環; 景氣指標; |
| 語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
| 中文摘要 | 我國在高階晶片、資通訊軟硬體整合向來居全球供應鏈關鍵地位,近年人工智慧、高效能運算等新興科技應用需求強勁,世界半導體貿易統計(WSTS)預測半導體市場高速成長力道將延續至2025年,半導體產業先進製程供不應求,帶動我國資訊電子工業生產及出口動能持續擴增,2024年下半年成長動能可望延續,工研院預期2024年度資訊電子工業產值將成長11.09%。加上資訊電子工業生產毛額占GDP達20.05%,為台灣經濟成長主要支柱之一,故掌握資訊電子工業景氣動向,有助預測我國景氣走勢變化。 研究結果顯示,依據台灣資訊電子工業的存貨量指數與加班工時、台灣電腦及週邊設備類股價指數、中國領先指標、韓國領先指標、美國PMI新增訂單等6條構成項目,編製合成台灣資訊電子工業景氣領先指標,景氣循環性分析結果,平均領先峰谷3個月,與基準循環數列的最強相關性領先期數為4個月,相關係數0.75,整體而言,台灣資訊電子工業景氣領先指標具有不錯的領先性。 |
| 英文摘要 | Taiwan's information and electronics industry occupies a critical position in the global supply chain. In recent years, the demand for emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC) has been strong. The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) predicts that the semiconductor market will continue its rapid growth impetus through 2025, driving sustained growth in Taiwan's information and electronics industry production and export momentum. Moreover, as one of the primary contributors to economic growth, the information and electronics industry plays a pivotal role. Therefore, monitoring the economic trends of this industry is essential for anticipating changes in Taiwan's economic outlook. The empirical results of this study identified six components as the initial selection for constructing a leading indicator of Taiwan's information electronics industry. These components include the inventory index and overtime hours of Taiwan's information electronics industry, the stock price index for Taiwan's computer and peripheral equipment sector, China's leading indicators, South Korea's leading indicators, and the U.S. PMI new orders index. The leading indicator for Taiwan's information electronics industry shows good leading property, with an average lead time of 3 months for economic peaks and troughs. The strongest correlation with the reference cycle series occurs at a lead time of 4 months, with a correlation coefficient of 0.75. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。