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| 題 名 | 應用大規模崩塌區現地監測資料建立告警機制之專家系統=Expert System for Providing Early Warning for Areas Prone to Large-scale Landslides |
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| 作 者 | 陳毅輝; 吳冠廷; 馮美禎; 林建良; | 書刊名 | 中華水土保持學報 |
| 卷 期 | 56:1 2025.03[民114.03] |
| 頁 次 | 頁1-12 |
| 分類號 | 434.273 |
| 關鍵詞 | 崩塌告警; 專家系統; 大規模崩塌監測; Landslide warning; Expert system; Large-scale landslide monitoring; |
| 語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
| DOI | 10.29417/JCSWC.202503_56(1).0001 |
| 中文摘要 | 本研究應用大規模崩塌地的地表變位長期監測與量測到崩塌滑動時的地表變位數據,分析地表變 位達警戒值且連續三小時變形速率增加之綜合評估方法 (Delta 比例法),經由 PLAXIS 數值分析模擬以及現地 監測地表變位之速率與時間分析,以新北市鵠鵠崙的崩塌破壞為案例並以桃園市光華崩塌地為驗證,得到達 連續三小時變形速率增加的速率比值之 Delta 比例門檻值建議設定為 1.2,可設定連續三小時變形速率之 V1、 V2、V3 門檻值分別為 4.8、5.76、6.91 mm/hr,此機制於新北市鵠鵠崙的崩塌破壞可提早 12 小時告警,並設 計成為大規模崩塌告警機制之專家系統。 |
| 英文摘要 | In this study, the correlation between slope deformation and time in a 3-h consecutive deformation curve was used as an early warning mechanism before landslide occurrence. This approach is called the delta-ratio method, wherein curves of displacement versus time are plotted, with segments of equal time set to 1 h. As the displacement of a curve increases, the segments are subtended by the larger displacement of a 1-h interval, as evident from numerical analysis with PLAXIS. This study analyzed the delta ratio of on-site monitoring data collected using surface extensometers in Taiwan’s Gugulun and Guanghua landslide areas, where landslides occurred in 2021 and 2022, respectively. The expert system using the delta-ratio method revealed a displacement velocity ratio of 1.2. V0 was 4 mm/h, and V1, V2, and V3 were 4.8, 5.76, and 6.91 mm/h, respectively. Overall, the expert system provided a landslide warning 12 h in advance when velocity thresholds were set at V1, V2, and V3. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。