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| 題 名 | 整合ECMWF SEAS5長期雨量預報與連續型降雨-逕流模式進行水庫入流量預報=Integration of ECMWF SEAS5 Long-term Rainfall Forecasts and Continuous Rainfall-runoff Model towards Reservoir Inflow Forecasting |
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| 作 者 | 楊道昌; 龔明人; 李亞儒; 李清縢; 洪景山; 游保杉; | 書刊名 | 農業工程學報 |
| 卷 期 | 70:2 2024.06[民113.06] |
| 頁 次 | 頁1-13 |
| 分類號 | 443.64 |
| 關鍵詞 | HBV水文模式; 長期雨量預報; 長期流量預報; ECMWF SEAS5; HBV hydrological model; Seasonal rainfall forecasting; Inflow forecasting; |
| 語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
| DOI | 10.29974/JTAE.202406_70(2).0001 |
| 中文摘要 | 面對未來可能陸續發生極端乾旱事件,提供主管機關進行抗旱決策時更為科學且客觀之參考資訊,發展科學化流量預報方法提供長期流量預報資訊,以進一步推估水庫蓄水量變化趨勢,輔助抗旱作為等相關決策,有其必要性。在水利署與氣象署MOU之共享合作成果基礎上,氣象署採用ECMWF第5代季節預報系統(fifth generation seasonal forecast system, SEAS5)之季節預報資料,產製臺灣重要水庫與攔河堰集水區之長期雨量預報降尺度產品,進一步提供水利署進行未來1~6個月水庫入流量預報。前述ECMWF SEAS5長期雨量預報降尺度產品為月尺度(預報雨量為月總雨量),為配合水庫/攔河堰集水區水文模式之模擬時間單位(日時間尺度),藉由k鄰近法將預報雨量之時間尺度由月轉換成日時間尺度,再輸入修正型HBV水文模式進行流量模擬。本研究採用ECMWF長期雨量預報降尺度產品之歷史預報成果進行各個月份滾動式流量預報(即每個月預報一次皆採用ECMWF長期雨量歷史預報資料進行未來1~6個月流量預報),並以流量區間預報效能評估方法,評析石門水庫、德基水庫、曾文水庫與高屏溪攔河堰之長期流量預報效能。分析成果顯示:導入ECMWF長期雨量預報進行水庫入流量預報,其預報效能高於以Q80與Q90保守情境流量(視為預報值)之方式,有助於掌握水庫與攔河堰之長期入流量趨勢。 |
| 英文摘要 | For facing the increasing occurrence of extreme droughts in the future, the long-term reservoir inflow forecasting is an essential tool for the authorities of water resources management to estimate the reservoir water storage for 1 ~ 6 months ahead and support to decide the suitable drought relief measures when the predicted water storage is insufficient. Based on the Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation between the Water Resources Agency (WRA) and the Central Weather Administration (CWA), the CWA uses the raw forecasting data of ECMWF SEAS5 to produce the downscaled and corrected monthly rainfall forecasts for 1 ~ 6 months ahead for the major reservoir catchments in Taiwan. These downscaled and corrected monthly rainfall forecasts are then provided to the WRA for executing reservoir inflow forecasting. The monthly rainfall forecasts are further converted to daily rainfall forecasts by the k-nearest neighbors algorithm, which are then input into the modified HBV hydrological model to simulate the inflows for each reservoir. The study uses the historical downscaled and corrected rainfall forecasts to conduct 1 ~ 6 months-ahead flow forecasting once each month and evaluates the flow forecasting accuracy for Shimen Reservoir, Deji Reservoir, Zengwen Reservoir, and Gaoping Creek Weir. The analysis results show that using the downscaled and corrected rainfall forecasting data of ECMWF SEAS5 for reservoir inflow forecasting has higher forecasting performance than the traditional method adopting Q80 and Q90 (the 80th and 90th percentiles of the flow duration curve, respectively) as the forecasts. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。