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| 題 名 | 氣候變遷下亞熱帶高山水庫水質長期趨勢分析與優養預警模型=Long-term Water Quality Analysis and Eutrophication Prediction Model for a Subtropical Reservoir in the Face of Climate Changes |
|---|---|
| 作 者 | 林育誼; 張慧嫺; 潘述元; 余美香; | 書刊名 | 農業工程學報 |
| 卷 期 | 70:1 2024.03[民113.03] |
| 頁 次 | 頁24-38 |
| 分類號 | 443.64 |
| 關鍵詞 | 亞熱帶水庫; 高山湖泊; 水庫水質; 藻華; 湖泊生態利用; 資料探勘; 決策樹分析; Subtropical reservoirs; Alpine lakes; Reservoir water quality; Algal blooms; Lake ecological utilization; Data mining; Decision tree analysis; |
| 語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
| DOI | 10.29974/JTAE.202403_70(1).0003 |
| 中文摘要 | 近年來,湖庫水質優養化對於水資源、人類健康和生態環境造成威脅。因此,了解水庫水質及其集水區面對未來氣候變遷之衝擊,對於水庫經營管理相當重要。本研究以德基水庫為對象,針對過去30年間之長期水質趨勢,進行時空間變化之複合分析。研究結果顯示:水庫水質確實受當地氣候變化呈現顯著差異,例如:過去30年間,水溫具上升趨勢(斜率為0.00022°C/天),導致庫區水體溶氧顯著下降(每年下降約0.038mg/L),而導電度則呈現顯著上升趨勢(每年上升約1.6μS/cm)。本研究亦從空間分布角度,綜合分析德基水庫集水區潛在非點源污染及歷年溪流水質監測數據,結果發現:庫區懸浮固體主要產生於四季朗溪及南湖溪測站匯流至松茂溪口採樣點位之間;至於庫區營養鹽主要來自晉元溪,其次是有勝溪與合歡溪。為了解水質與藻類生長之關係以面對未來藻華風險,本研究更將歷年水庫水質數據建立一水體優養判識決策樹模型,並使用k折交叉驗證法重新抽樣樣本進行模型驗證。此模型基於庫區溶氧、pH、懸浮固體、總磷及化學需氧量等水質參數進行優養化(葉綠素a濃度)判識,結果顯示此模型判斷庫區水體優養化之正確率可達77%以上。綜合以上,本研究透過歷年水質監測數據之長期趨勢分析、集水區污染途徑鑑別與非點源污染推估以及基於水質參數建立之優養判識決策樹模型,並提出因應氣候變遷下水庫水質保護與集水區治理之策略與作為,以供管理單位參酌。 |
| 英文摘要 | In recent years, eutrophication of the water in reservoirs has posed threats to water resources, human health, and the ecological environment. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the water quality of reservoirs and the impacts of future climate change on their catchment areas for effective reservoir management. This study focuses on the Techi Reservoir and conducts a comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal variations in water quality trends over the past 30 years. The research findings indicate that the reservoir's water quality is significantly influenced by local climate change. For instance, over the past 30 years, there has been an upward trend in water temperature (with a slope of 0.00022 °C/day), leading to a significant decrease in dissolved oxygen in the reservoir (decreasing by approximately 0.038 mg/L per year), while conductivity has shown a significant upward trend (increasing by approximately 1.6 μS/cm per year). From a spatial distribution perspective, this study combines the analysis of potential non-point source pollution in the Techi Reservoir catchment area with historical stream water quality monitoring data. The results indicate that suspended solids in the reservoir are mainly generated between the Siji-Lang River and Nan-Hu River monitoring stations, which converge at the sampling point of the Song-Mao River mouth. As for nutrients in the reservoir, they primarily come from the Jin-Yuan River, followed by the You-Sheng River and He- Huan River. To understand the relationship between water quality and algal growth and to address future algal bloom risks, this study also establishes a decision tree model for identifying eutrophication based on historical reservoir water quality data, and validate the developed prediction model by the k-fold cross validation method. This model utilizes water quality parameters such as dissolved oxygen, pH, suspended solids, total phosphorus, and chemical oxygen demand to classify eutrophication (i.e., chlorophyll-a concentration) in the reservoir, achieving an accuracy of over 77 %. In summary, through long-term trend analysis of water quality monitoring data, identification of pollution pathways and estimation of non-point source pollution in the catchment area, as well as the establishment of a decision tree model based on water quality parameters, this study proposes strategies and measures for reservoir water quality protection and catchment area management in response to climate change, providing valuable insights for management authorities to consider. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。