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題 名 | 合作區建設背景下澳門勞動力供需預測:2021~2036年=Labour Supply and Demand Forecasting in Macao under the Construction of Guangdong-Macao In-Depth Cooperation Zone in Hengqin |
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作 者 | 鄭健松; 張濤; 楊發輝; | 書刊名 | 一國兩制研究 |
卷 期 | 51 2024.04[民113.04] |
頁 次 | 頁52-67 |
分類號 | 542.71 |
關鍵詞 | 澳門; 橫琴粵澳深度合作區; 勞動力供給; 勞動力需求; 就業彈性; Macao; Guangdong-Macao In-Depth Cooperation Zone in Hengqin; Labour supply; Labour demand; Employment elasticity; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 澳門勞動力供需均衡是促進澳門經濟適度多元發展的人力基礎。基於橫琴粵澳深度合作區的建設背景,利用基於隊列要素預測法的勞動力供給預測方法和基於就業彈性的勞動力需求預測方法,對2021-2036年澳門勞動力供給和需求規模進行預測。結果顯示:(1)未來澳門本地勞動力供給先快速下降到2031年的約24.4萬人,再緩慢下降到2036年的約24.1萬人;(2)未來澳門勞動力需求呈逐年遞增趨勢,到2036年約為58.2萬人;(3)2021-2026年間澳門的外來勞動力數量將超過本地勞動力供給規模,但當本地總和勞動參與率提升至0.8或就業彈性降低至0.1時,未來澳門勞動力供需基本能夠達致均衡。政策建議着重鼓勵、引導和培訓澳門本地老齡及女性勞動適齡人口參與到勞動力市場,提高澳門本地勞動參與率進而提高本地勞動力供給規模;注重智能科技與人力資源的協調性,設立兒童成長基金,培養本地高素質人才,降低就業彈性進而減少勞動力需求。 |
英文摘要 | The balance between labour supply and demand in Macao provides human resources for appropriate diversity of Macao’s economy and the construction of the Guangdong-Macao In-Depth Cooperation Zone in Hengqin. The cohort component population prediction method and employment elasticities are applied to forecast the numbers of labour supply and demand in Macao and Hengqin between 2021 and 2036. The results show that (1) Macao’s local labour supply first declines rapidly to about 244 thousand in 2031, and then slowly to 241 thousand in 2036. (2) Macao’s labour demand shows an increasing trend to approximately 582 thousand in 2036. (3) Macao’s foreign labour force will exceed the size of local labour supply between 2021 and 2026. However, if the total local labour force participation rate rises to 0.80 or the employment elasticity decreases to 0.10, Macao’s labour supply and demand will largely achieve equilibrium in the future. Policy implications are developed. Firstly, Macao’s older people and women are encouraged to participate in its labour market. Secondly, the coordination between artificial intelligence and human resources should be emphasized and child development funds dominated by the government can be set up to nurture highly qualified local talents. Only in this way can the local labour force participation rate be increased, employment elasticity be reduced, and labour supply and demand in Macao be balanced. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。