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題名 | 臺灣多時間尺度降雨集中型態之時空變化分析=Spatiotemporal Variability of Precipitation Concentration Patterns at Multi-time Scale in Taiwan |
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作者姓名(中文) | 黃嘉琦; 陳信宇; 葉信富; | 書刊名 | 農業工程學報 |
卷期 | 69:3 2023.09[民112.09] |
頁次 | 頁30-44 |
分類號 | 328.63 |
關鍵詞 | 降雨集中指數; 多時間尺度; 時空分佈; 降雨型態; Precipitation concentration index; Multi-time scale; Spatiotemporal distribution; Precipitation pattern; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
DOI引用網址 | 10.29974/JTAE.202309_69(3).0003 |
中文摘要 | 降雨對於農業經濟活動、供水管理以及維持生態環境至關重要。臺灣位處熱帶與副熱帶季風氣候區而乾濕季分明,加上近年來氣候變遷增加水文不確定性,掌握降雨時空分佈特徵將有助於剖析降雨型態如何改變以及其對區域的影響。近年來,降雨集中狀況已被多數研究視為探討洪水與乾旱等極端降雨事件風險的有效工具,因此本研究藉由以日與月尺度資料為基礎的日降雨集中指數DPCI(Daily Precipitation Concentration Index)與月降雨集中指數MPCI(Monthly Precipitation Concentration Index),探討臺灣1960至2020年在氣象、水文季節與水文年尺度的降雨集中狀況與其空間分佈,並透過兩種指數間之相關性瞭解各時間尺度以及兩種指數間是否存在空間關係,並進一步綜整臺灣各分區在不同時間尺度所對應的降雨型態,最後應用趨勢與同質性檢定分析降雨集中程度的長期變化以及潛在的降雨型態轉換。結果顯示各時間尺度之平均DPCI皆呈高度降雨集中,平均MPCI則皆呈中度集中以上。DPCI與MPCI於不同時間尺度之空間分佈差異可能受到降雨來源的強度、影響範圍以及起訖時間等因素所影響,亦是導致高度顯著正相關性僅出現在春季DPCI與春季及平均年MPCI間的原因。此外,DPCI與MPCI分別與經緯度的相關性,說明臺灣各區域的降雨型態受到不同因素所影響,且分區結果顯示中部與南部區域在任一時間尺度皆更傾向乾濕極端分明。趨勢檢定結果可以北回歸線為界,北回歸線以南之山區在夏季與濕季乾濕分明程度呈上升趨勢,西南部地區在乾季之降雨型態趨向均勻乾燥;北回歸線以北之東部則在年尺度降雨趨向均勻濕潤。本研究結果說明應用不同降雨集中指數有助於將降雨變率以不同時間尺度剖析、瞭解其空間分佈與降雨來源之關係,並探討降雨型態潛在的轉換行為,可應用於改善水文模擬預測與水資源管理決策所參考。 |
英文摘要 | Precipitation plays a critical role in agricultural activities, water supply management, and maintaining ecological habitat. Taiwan belongs to a tropical and a subtropical monsoon climatic region with distinct wet and dry seasons. Besides, climate change has increased hydrological uncertainty in recent years, and thus understanding the characteristics of precipitation spatiotemporal distribution would help to explore how precipitation patterns change and their impacts on the local regions. Precipitation concentration has been regarded as an effective tool to explore the risk of extreme events such as floods and droughts by previous studies. Therefore, this study applied Daily Precipitation Concentration Index (DPCI) and Monthly Precipitation Concentration Index (MPCI) to explore the precipitation concentration and its spatial distribution in Taiwan from 1960 to 2020 at the meteorological season, hydrologic season and hydrologic years scales. We analyzed the correlation among each scale and the two indexes to realize the consistency of the spatial distribution. The precipitation patterns corresponding to different time scales in each subregion of Taiwan were also identified. Finally, trend and homogeneity test were used to analyze the long-term changes in precipitation concentration and potential precipitation pattern transformations. The results show that the average DPCIs at each time scale is high precipitation concentration, and the average MPCIs included moderate and high precipitation concentrations. The difference of the spatial distribution between DPCI and MPCI at different time scales may be affected by the precipitation intensity of different sources, the influence range, and the times of events. These may be also the reason that a highly positive correlation only appears among DPCI in spring and MPCI in spring and hydrologic years. In addition, the correlation of DPCI and MPCI with latitude and longitude indicated that the difference in the precipitation patterns in each subregion are contributed by different factors. The central and southern regions are more prone to be a significant difference between wet and dry periods at any time scale. The results of trend tests were bounded by the Tropic of Cancer. The difference between wet and dry periods in the mountainous areas south of the Tropic of Cancer had increasing trends in summer and wet season, and the precipitation pattern in the southwest area tends to be uniform dryness in the dry season. In north of the Tropic of Cancer, precipitation tends to be uniform wetness in the eastern area at hydrologic years scale. These results show that using different precipitation concentration indexes help to analyze rainfall variability at different time scales, to understand the relationship between the spatial distribution and the precipitation sources, and to explore the potential transformation of rainfall patterns. It can be used as a reference for improving hydrological simulation and prediction, and water resource management. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。